Watford 0-4 Burnley: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Championship Matchday 9 · Saturday 10 October 2026 · Vicarage Road, Watford · referee A. Madley · full time
Full time: Watford 0-4 Burnley
Watford 0-4 Burnley: Burnley took the points in Championship Matchday 9 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Vicarage Road. The goals: Jacob Bruun Larsen 13', Zeki Amdouni 19', Reo Hatate 25', Marcus Edwards 87'.
How Burnley won it
Burnley struck first through Jacob Bruun Larsen in the 13th minute, set up by Reo Hatate. Zeki Amdouni made it 0-2 to Burnley in the 19th minute, set up by Jacob Bruun Larsen. Reo Hatate made it 0-3 to Burnley in the 25th minute, set up by Lucas Pires. Marcus Edwards made it 0-4 to Burnley in the 87th minute, set up by Lucas Pires.
It was 0-3 at half-time.
Watford: A. Dionisi, 4-2-3-1 · Burnley: N. Hayen, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
Moneyball did not publish a pre-match estimate for this match, so there is nothing to mark it against.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.71 for Watford and 0.71 for Burnley.
Watford scored about 1.7 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.
Burnley made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 3.3 goals.
Watford created the better chances, 1.71 xG to 0.71, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
Watford had 6 shots on target, Burnley 8.
Burnley's goalkeeper made 6 saves.
Watford had 52% of the ball, but Burnley took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Watford came into it with 12 Championship matches played, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.10 expected goals for and 1.89 against, and had won 25% of their matches.
Burnley came into it with 12 Championship matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.1 a match, with 1.38 expected goals for and 1.70 against, and had won 8% of their matches.
Watford vs Burnley: the match in numbers
| Watford | Match statistics | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| 52% | Ball possession | 48% |
| 1.71 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.71 |
| 14 | Total shots | 17 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 1 | Big chances | 4 |
| 450 | Total passes | 423 |
| 88% | Pass accuracy | 82% |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 5 |
| 18 | Tackles | 19 |
| 4 | Saves | 6 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Lucas Pires (Burnley), rated 8.7 by Sportmonks, with 2 assists.
Watford
- Hector Kyprianou 7.1
- Mattie Pollock 7.0
- Martín Payero 7.0
- Edo Kayembe 6.9
- Jordan Zemura 6.7
Burnley
- Lucas Pires 8.7 2 assists
- Jacob Bruun Larsen 8.3 1 goal, 1 assist
- Grégoire Coudert 8.1
- Reo Hatate 7.9 1 goal, 1 assist
- Marcus Edwards 7.6 1 goal
The lowest-rated starter was Iker Bravo at 5.9. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Watford: Norwich City vs Watford Saturday 31 October 2026 · Championship
- Burnley: Burnley vs Portsmouth Saturday 31 October 2026 · Championship
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Watford vs Burnley
What was the score in Watford vs Burnley?
Watford 0-4 Burnley (half-time 0-3), Championship, Saturday 10 October 2026.
Who scored in Watford vs Burnley?
Jacob Bruun Larsen 13', Zeki Amdouni 19', Reo Hatate 25', Marcus Edwards 87'.
Did Moneyball predict Watford vs Burnley correctly?
Moneyball did not publish a pre-match estimate for this match, so there is nothing to mark it against.
Who was man of the match in Watford vs Burnley?
Lucas Pires, rated 8.7 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Watford vs Burnley?
A. Madley.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.