Burnley vs Portsmouth Prediction and Betting Tips | Championship Gameweek 13
Championship · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Turf Moor, Burnley · updated 2026-10-25
Burnley welcome Portsmouth to Turf Moor in Burnley in Championship Gameweek 13 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Burnley have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 8% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate. Portsmouth have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 42% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Burnley 33%, the draw 26%, Portsmouth 41%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Burnley 1.38, Portsmouth 1.55.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Burnley: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.38 a match created, 1.70 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 49.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 92% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Portsmouth: form and key numbers
In style Portsmouth keep the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.40 a match created, 1.20 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 14.6 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 52.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Burnley vs Portsmouth: season averages side by side
| Burnley | Per match this season | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 2.1 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.38 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.40 |
| 1.70 | xG conceded | 1.20 |
| 13.7 | Shots | 14.6 |
| 4.1 | On target | 3.8 |
| 49.1 | Possession % | 52.4 |
| 8% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 92% | Both teams scored % | 58% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.68 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Burnley
- Marcus Edwards RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 44 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 35% of his position)
- Lucas Pires LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 40 · Ball-winner, Hard to dribble past (top 14% of his position)
Portsmouth
- Marko Milovanović CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 43 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
- Adrian Segečić RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 41 · Crosser, Big-chance creator (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jacob Bruun Larsen
Jacob Bruun Larsen, 28 · Burnley · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 44
Jacob Bruun Larsen, 28, plays as a winger for Burnley in the Championship. Strongest for his role in big chances created and dispossessed. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 44
- RW · Winger Natural, 44
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 41
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.74 / 90 | 91% |
| Dispossessed | 0.44 / 90 | 90% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.40 / 90 | 88% |
| Key passes | 2.95 / 90 | 83% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.88 / 90 | 52% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Press-resistant, Creator.
- What Jacob Bruun Larsen is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jacob Bruun Larsen's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Burnley vs Portsmouth prediction
Portsmouth should have more of the ball; Portsmouth are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.38 for Burnley and 1.55 for Portsmouth - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 60%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Burnley 1-1 Portsmouth
Burnley vs Portsmouth betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.93 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Burnley vs Portsmouth: questions and answers
When is Burnley vs Portsmouth?
Burnley vs Portsmouth is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 13.
Where is Burnley vs Portsmouth played?
At Turf Moor, Burnley, Burnley's home ground.
Who will win Burnley vs Portsmouth?
It is close: Burnley 33%, draw 26%, Portsmouth 41%. Our prediction is Burnley 1-1 Portsmouth.
Who is the player to watch in Burnley vs Portsmouth?
Jacob Bruun Larsen of Burnley: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 44 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Portsmouth?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.