Norwich City vs Watford Prediction and Betting Tips | Championship Gameweek 13
Championship · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 12:30 UTC · Carrow Road, Norwich · updated 2026-10-25
Norwich City welcome Watford to Carrow Road in Norwich in Championship Gameweek 13 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 12:30 UTC.
Norwich City have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate. Watford have played 12 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Norwich City are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 23% and Watford at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Norwich City 1.96, Watford 1.14.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Norwich City: form and key numbers
In style Norwich City keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.41 a match created, 1.64 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.0).
- Shots: 14.1 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Watford: form and key numbers
In style Watford are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.10 a match created, 1.89 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.3).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 45.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Norwich City vs Watford: season averages side by side
| Norwich City | Per match this season | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.10 |
| 1.64 | xG conceded | 1.89 |
| 14.1 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.1 |
| 52.3 | Possession % | 45.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 8% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
| 6.76 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Norwich City
- Paris Maghoma CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 38 · Dribbler, Creator (top 13% of his position)
- Anthony Musaba LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 35 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 37% of his position)
Watford
- Federico Ravaglia GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 46 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 4% of his position)
- Jordan Zemura LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 37 · Reads the game, Chance creator (top 26% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Pelle Mattsson
Pelle Mattsson, 25 · Norwich City · CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 42
Pelle Mattsson, 25, plays as a central midfielder for Norwich City in the Championship. Strongest for his role in interceptions and key passes. Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 42
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 1.95 / 90 | 89% |
| Key passes | 1.86 / 90 | 68% |
| Expected goals | 0.16 / 90 | 63% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.18 / 90 | 58% |
| Long balls | 2.51 / 90 | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★½ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Reads the game.
- What Pelle Mattsson is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Pelle Mattsson's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Norwich City vs Watford prediction
Norwich City should have more of the ball, with Watford likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.96 for Norwich City and 1.14 for Watford - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 59%. Norwich City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Norwich City 2-1 Watford
Norwich City vs Watford betting tips
- Tip 1: Norwich City to win 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 3.09 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Norwich City vs Watford: questions and answers
When is Norwich City vs Watford?
Norwich City vs Watford is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 12:30 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 13.
Where is Norwich City vs Watford played?
At Carrow Road, Norwich, Norwich City's home ground.
Who will win Norwich City vs Watford?
Norwich City are the favourites: Norwich City 56%, draw 23%, Watford 21%. Our prediction is Norwich City 2-1 Watford.
Who is the player to watch in Norwich City vs Watford?
Pelle Mattsson of Norwich City: a ball-winning midfielder with a Moneyball Score of 42 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Norwich City vs Watford?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.