★ Moneyball Original · Moneyball FPL Scout · Gameweek 11
Who is the best FPL captain for Gameweek 11?
By Moneyball Editorial · published · updated
Gabriel
Evanilson
KonsaFor Gameweek 11 the Moneyball expected points put Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães first for the armband, 6.5 points before doubling, only just ahead of Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa (6.1).
| Player | Fixture | FPL price | Expected pts | Club xG in the match | Owned by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães | NEW (A) | £8.1m | 6.5 | 2.02 | 26.1% |
| Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa | NFO (H) | £6.5m | 6.1 | 1.47 | 23.8% |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | NEW (A) | £4.8m | 6.1 | 2.02 | 24.6% |
| Nicolas Jackson | SUN (H) | £7.1m | 6.1 | 1.55 | 31.2% |
| Jan Paul van Hecke | IPS (H) | £5.1m | 6.0 | 1.82 | 14.7% |
The case for each
Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães (Arsenal) £8.1m
Gabriel visits Newcastle (difficulty 3), with a 45% chance of a clean sheet on the Dixon-Coles matrix. Moneyball expects 6.5 points; his form is 9.8, and 26.1% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 1 goal and 0 assists in 900 minutes, 0.9 shots and 0.2 key passes per 90, rated 7.14 a match.
Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa (Bournemouth) £6.5m
Evanilson hosts Nott'm Forest (difficulty 3), with 0.48 xG and 0.11 xA per 90 this season. Moneyball expects 6.1 points; his form is 9.0, and 23.8% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 5 goals and 4 assists in 843 minutes, 2.8 shots and 1.2 key passes per 90, rated 7.38 a match; his expected goals per 90 sit in the 64th percentile of Premier League forwards; he has scored 1.6 more than his chances were worth, finishing luck the model takes out.
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo (Arsenal) £4.8m
Konsa visits Newcastle (difficulty 3), with a 45% chance of a clean sheet on the Dixon-Coles matrix. Moneyball expects 6.1 points; his form is 10.2, and 24.6% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 1 goal and 0 assists in 731 minutes, 0.5 shots and 0.1 key passes per 90, rated 7.06 a match.
Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa) £7.1m
N.Jackson hosts Sunderland (difficulty 2), with 0.43 xG and 0.11 xA per 90 this season. Moneyball expects 6.1 points; his form is 8.8, and 31.2% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 6 goals and 1 assist in 728 minutes, 2.8 shots and 1.1 key passes per 90, rated 7.31 a match; his expected goals per 90 sit in the 67th percentile of Premier League forwards; he has scored 3.0 more than his chances were worth, finishing luck the model takes out.
Jan Paul van Hecke (Spurs) £5.1m
Van Hecke hosts Ipswich Town (difficulty 2), with a 39% chance of a clean sheet on the Dixon-Coles matrix. Moneyball expects 6.0 points; his form is 7.5, and 14.7% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 2 goals and 0 assists in 900 minutes, 1.1 shots and 1.0 key passes per 90, rated 7.49 a match.
Safe or bold?
Gabriel is owned by only 26.1% of managers: a captain few others have can lift your rank a long way if he scores.
- Attack and defence strength: each club's expected goals for and against per match in the Moneyball Stats Centre, against the league average.
- Expected goals for the fixture: attack against the other side's defence, with home advantage.
- Poisson: how many goals each side scores, from those expected goals.
- Dixon-Coles score matrix: the chance of every scoreline, low scores corrected, as on the Match Board.
- From the score table to the answers: each side's chance of a clean sheet, and so a defender's or goalkeeper's points.
- Probability as a percentage: every chance in the story is a share of 100, never a hunch.
- Players per 90 minutes and percentiles: each player's expected goals, shots and key passes per 90 in the Stats Centre, ranked against his position.
- Live: the same model follows the match minute by minute in Match Live.
- Pi-ratings: what this season's results say of each club home and away, nudging the fixture's expected goals.
- Bayesian shrinkage: a player's chances per 90 pulled toward his position's average while his minutes are few.
- Finishing luck taken out: the model reads expected goals, not goals, so a hot or cold streak in front of goal does not move it.
- Cup calibration: European and domestic cup matches are read on their own scale in the Stats Centre, so a player's cup minutes do not inflate his league figures.
Plus the official game's own figures: prices, ownership, form, fixture difficulty and the injury and suspension flags, and the minutes model (starts per gameweek, minutes per start).
The full team is in the Scout Selection for Gameweek 11.
Pick your team in Moneyball Fantasy Every player in the Stats Centre
Moneyball FPL Scout is written by Moneyball Editorial from the official Fantasy Premier League figures and the Moneyball Stats Centre (Sportmonks data), and rewritten at every update of the site, so the figures here follow the latest news. Moneyball is independent and is not run, sponsored or endorsed by the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.
Questions
- Who is the best FPL captain for Gameweek 11?
- Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães, with 6.5 expected points, then Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa with 6.1.
- Is the most-owned captain always right?
- Not always: a captain owned by most managers protects your rank, a lower-owned one can climb it. Gabriel is owned by 26.1% of managers.