★ Moneyball Original · Moneyball FPL Scout · Gameweek 11
Five FPL differentials for Gameweek 11
By Moneyball Editorial · published · updated
E.Le Fée
Vuskovic
TraffordA differential is a player few managers own: when he hauls, you climb past everyone who does not have him. These five are each in fewer than 10% of teams and have the best Gameweek 11 expected points among the low-owned.
| Player | Pos | Fixture | FPL price | Owned by | Expected pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Le Fée | MID | AVL (A) | £5.7m | 2.8% | 5.6 |
| Luka Vušković | DEF | HUL (A) | £5.3m | 9.4% | 5.4 |
| James Trafford | GKP | CHE (A) | £5.0m | 6.5% | 5.3 |
| Florian Wirtz | MID | MUN (H) | £7.2m | 5.6% | 5.0 |
| James Hill | DEF | NFO (H) | £5.6m | 3.0% | 5.0 |
Enzo Le Fée (Sunderland) £5.7m
E.Le Fée visits Aston Villa (difficulty 3), with 0.40 xG and 0.19 xA per 90 this season. Moneyball expects 5.6 points; his form is 6.5, and 2.8% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 3 goals and 1 assist in 868 minutes, 1.8 shots and 1.7 key passes per 90, rated 7.04 a match; his expected goals per 90 sit in the 97th percentile of Premier League midfielders.
Luka Vušković (Brighton) £5.3m
Vuskovic visits Hull City (difficulty 2), with a 38% chance of a clean sheet on the Dixon-Coles matrix. Moneyball expects 5.4 points; his form is 7.5, and 9.4% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 1 goal and 1 assist in 888 minutes, 1.6 shots and 0.1 key passes per 90, rated 7.30 a match.
James Trafford (Leeds) £5.0m
Trafford visits Chelsea (difficulty 4), with a 27% chance of a clean sheet on the Dixon-Coles matrix. Moneyball expects 5.3 points; his form is 6.0, and 6.5% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 0 goals and 0 assists in 900 minutes, 0.0 shots and 0.0 key passes per 90, rated 7.20 a match.
Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) £7.2m
Wirtz hosts Man Utd (difficulty 3), with 0.21 xG and 0.14 xA per 90 this season. Moneyball expects 5.0 points; his form is 6.5, and 5.6% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 1 goal and 3 assists in 796 minutes, 2.6 shots and 2.6 key passes per 90, rated 7.03 a match; his expected goals per 90 sit in the 91th percentile of Premier League midfielders; he has scored 1.9 fewer than his chances were worth, so the goals should come.
James Hill (Bournemouth) £5.6m
Hill hosts Nott'm Forest (difficulty 3), with a 37% chance of a clean sheet on the Dixon-Coles matrix. Moneyball expects 5.0 points; his form is 7.0, and 3.0% of managers own him. In the Stats Centre he has 0 goals and 0 assists in 900 minutes, 0.4 shots and 0.8 key passes per 90, rated 7.02 a match.
- Attack and defence strength: each club's expected goals for and against per match in the Moneyball Stats Centre, against the league average.
- Expected goals for the fixture: attack against the other side's defence, with home advantage.
- Poisson: how many goals each side scores, from those expected goals.
- Dixon-Coles score matrix: the chance of every scoreline, low scores corrected, as on the Match Board.
- From the score table to the answers: each side's chance of a clean sheet, and so a defender's or goalkeeper's points.
- Probability as a percentage: every chance in the story is a share of 100, never a hunch.
- Players per 90 minutes and percentiles: each player's expected goals, shots and key passes per 90 in the Stats Centre, ranked against his position.
- Live: the same model follows the match minute by minute in Match Live.
- Pi-ratings: what this season's results say of each club home and away, nudging the fixture's expected goals.
- Bayesian shrinkage: a player's chances per 90 pulled toward his position's average while his minutes are few.
- Finishing luck taken out: the model reads expected goals, not goals, so a hot or cold streak in front of goal does not move it.
- Cup calibration: European and domestic cup matches are read on their own scale in the Stats Centre, so a player's cup minutes do not inflate his league figures.
- Differential: owned by fewer than 10% of managers and fit to play.
Plus the official game's own figures: prices, ownership, form, fixture difficulty and the injury and suspension flags, and the minutes model (starts per gameweek, minutes per start).
Pick your team in Moneyball Fantasy Every player in the Stats Centre
Moneyball FPL Scout is written by Moneyball Editorial from the official Fantasy Premier League figures and the Moneyball Stats Centre (Sportmonks data), and rewritten at every update of the site, so the figures here follow the latest news. Moneyball is independent and is not run, sponsored or endorsed by the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.
Questions
- Who are the best FPL differentials for Gameweek 11?
- Enzo Le Fée (2.8% owned), Luka Vušković (9.4% owned), James Trafford (6.5% owned), Florian Wirtz (5.6% owned), James Hill (3.0% owned).
- What is a differential in FPL?
- A player few managers own. When he scores, your rank rises against everyone who does not have him.