Al Nassr vs Al Kholood Prediction and Betting Tips
Saudi Pro League · Friday 30 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Al Nassr welcome Al Kholood to Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh in Saudi Pro League action on Friday 30 October 2026.
Al Nassr have played 10 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 2.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 63% win rate. Al Kholood have played 10 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 30% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Al Nassr are clear favourites at 74%, with the draw at 16% and Al Kholood at 11%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (14.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Al Nassr -2 at 1.89, Al Kholood at 1.78. The main goals line is 3.5: over 1.88, under 1.78, which gives over 49%.
Al Nassr: form and key numbers
In style Al Nassr keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created, 0.75 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.6).
- Shots: 15.9 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 55.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (75% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Al Kholood: form and key numbers
In style Al Kholood play long and direct, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.92 a match created, 1.80 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.2).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 70% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Al Nassr vs Al Kholood: season averages side by side
| Al Nassr | Per match | Al Kholood |
|---|---|---|
| 1.74 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.92 |
| 0.75 | xG conceded | 1.80 |
| 2.30 | Goals | 1.40 |
| 15.9 | Shots | 13.1 |
| 6.2 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 1.9 | Big chances missed | 2.7 |
| 71.2 | Pressure share % | 50.0 |
| 14.4 | Tackles | 15.7 |
| 13.6 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 10 and 10 measured matches.
Al Nassr vs Al Kholood: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Al Nassr have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Al Nassr 11, Al Kholood 4 - 3.8 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Al Kholood 0-3 Al Nassr (January 30th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Al Nassr won 3, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | Al Kholood | 0 – 3 | Al Nassr |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Al Nassr | 2 – 0 | Al Kholood |
| 14 Mar 2025 | Al Nassr | 3 – 1 | Al Kholood |
| 25 Oct 2024 | Al Kholood | 3 – 3 | Al Nassr |
Players to watch
Al Nassr
- Ângelo RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 19 · Big-chance creator, Crosser (top 28% of his position)
- Samú Costa DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 18 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
Al Kholood
- John Buckley CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 26 · Chance creator, Creator (top 13% of his position)
- Coba da Costa LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 21 · Dribbler, Crosser (top 31% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: João Félix
João Félix, 26 · Al Nassr · SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 39
João Félix, 26, plays as a second striker for Al Nassr in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in assists and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average second striker, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- SS · Second striker Natural, 39
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 36
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 34
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Assists | 0.47 / 90 | 78% |
| Key passes | 3.28 / 90 | 72% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.47 / 90 | 72% |
| Shots | 3.98 / 90 | 66% |
| Fouls won | 2.23 / 90 | 66% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- What João Félix is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open João Félix's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Al Nassr vs Al Kholood prediction
Al Nassr should have more of the ball, with Al Kholood likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.54 for Al Nassr and 0.97 for Al Kholood - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 58%. Al Nassr have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Al Nassr 3-1 Al Kholood
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Al Nassr vs Al Kholood betting tips
- Tip 1: Al Nassr to win 74% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 68% by the model, 3.50 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Al Nassr vs Al Kholood in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Saudi Pro League previews
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Al Nassr vs Al Kholood: questions and answers
When is Al Nassr vs Al Kholood?
Al Nassr vs Al Kholood is on Friday 30 October 2026, in Saudi Pro League.
Where is Al Nassr vs Al Kholood played?
At Al-Awwal Park, Riyadh, Al Nassr's home ground.
Who will win Al Nassr vs Al Kholood?
Al Nassr are the favourites: Al Nassr 74%, draw 16%, Al Kholood 11%. Our prediction is Al Nassr 3-1 Al Kholood.
Who is the player to watch in Al Nassr vs Al Kholood?
João Félix of Al Nassr: a link-up forward with a Moneyball Score of 39 against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Al Nassr vs Al Kholood?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
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