Al Riyadh vs Al Qadisiyah Prediction and Betting Tips
Saudi Pro League · Friday 30 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Al Riyadh welcome Al Qadisiyah to Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Riyadh in Saudi Pro League action on Friday 30 October 2026.
Al Riyadh have played 10 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 30% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Al Qadisiyah have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Al Qadisiyah are clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 18% and Al Riyadh at 13%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (14.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Al Riyadh +1.5 at 1.93, Al Qadisiyah at 1.74. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.75, under 1.89, which gives over 52%.
Al Riyadh: form and key numbers
In style Al Riyadh are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.95 a match created, 1.62 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.5).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 41.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Al Riyadh vs Al Qadisiyah: season averages side by side
| Al Riyadh | Per match | Al Qadisiyah |
|---|---|---|
| 0.95 | Expected goals (xG) | – |
| 1.62 | xG conceded | – |
| 1.10 | Goals | – |
| 11.7 | Shots | – |
| 3.1 | Shots on target | – |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | – |
| 28.8 | Pressure share % | – |
| 13.5 | Tackles | – |
| 10.9 | Fouls | – |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | – |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 10 and – measured matches.
Players to watch
Al Riyadh
- Kader Keita DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 15 · Hard to dribble past, Secure passer (top 12% of his position)
- Bernard Mensah AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 14 · Secure passer, Dribbler (top 1% of his position)
Al Riyadh vs Al Qadisiyah prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.26 for Al Riyadh and 1.52 for Al Qadisiyah - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 57%. Al Qadisiyah have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Al Riyadh 1-2 Al Qadisiyah
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Al Riyadh vs Al Qadisiyah betting tips
- Tip 1: Al Qadisiyah to win 69% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.79 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Al Riyadh vs Al Qadisiyah in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Al Riyadh vs Al Qadisiyah: questions and answers
When is Al Riyadh vs Al Qadisiyah?
Al Riyadh vs Al Qadisiyah is on Friday 30 October 2026, in Saudi Pro League.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al Qadisiyah played?
At Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Riyadh, Al Riyadh's home ground.
Who will win Al Riyadh vs Al Qadisiyah?
Al Qadisiyah are the favourites: Al Riyadh 13%, draw 18%, Al Qadisiyah 69%. Our prediction is Al Riyadh 1-2 Al Qadisiyah.
How many goals will there be in Al Riyadh vs Al Qadisiyah?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.