Arsenal vs Lille: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Arsenal host Lille in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 14 October 2026. The bookmakers make Arsenal clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 17% and Lille at 11%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.8% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Arsenal -1.75 at 2.05, Lille at 1.83. The main goals line is 3: over 1.96, under 1.90, which gives over 49%.
Form in numbers
- Arsenal create more: 1.79 expected goals a match against 1.26 for Lille.
- Arsenal give away less, 0.92 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Arsenal 12.8 (4.8 on target), Lille 12.8 (6.4 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Arsenal 65.8%, Lille 45.9%.
| Arsenal | Per match | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| 1.79 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.26 |
| 0.92 | xG conceded | 1.69 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 1.60 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 6.4 |
| 1.6 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 65.8 | Pressure share % | 45.9 |
| 11.6 | Tackles | 13.8 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 10.6 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
More UEFA Champions League previews
- Lens vs Sporting Lisbon Wednesday 14 October 2026
- Sabah FK vs Slavia Praha Wednesday 14 October 2026
- Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United Wednesday 14 October 2026
- Inter Milan vs Club Brugge Wednesday 14 October 2026
- Galatasaray vs Barcelona Wednesday 14 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven Wednesday 14 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.