Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Atletico Madrid host Manchester United in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 14 October 2026. The bookmakers make Atletico Madrid narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 25% and Manchester United at 32%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Atletico Madrid -0.25 at 1.95, Manchester United at 1.93. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.98, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Form in numbers
- Manchester United create more: 2.07 expected goals a match against 1.72 for Atletico Madrid.
- Manchester United give away less, 1.04 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Atletico Madrid 16.9 (6.4 on target), Manchester United 22.6 (5.6 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Atletico Madrid 67.7%, Manchester United 73.4%.
| Atletico Madrid | Per match | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.07 |
| 1.05 | xG conceded | 1.04 |
| 2.29 | Goals | 1.60 |
| 16.9 | Shots | 22.6 |
| 6.4 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 1.9 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 67.7 | Pressure share % | 73.4 |
| 17.0 | Tackles | 13.0 |
| 12.4 | Fouls | 9.8 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Atletico Madrid won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2022 | Manchester United | 0 – 1 | Atletico Madrid |
| 23 Feb 2022 | Atletico Madrid | 1 – 1 | Manchester United |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.