AS Roma vs Real Madrid: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Champions League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
AS Roma host Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Thursday 15 October 2026. The bookmakers make Real Madrid narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 24% and AS Roma at 31%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is AS Roma +0.5 at 1.86, Real Madrid at 2.02. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.76, under 2.11, which gives over 54%.
Form in numbers
- AS Roma create more: 2.55 expected goals a match against 2.41 for Real Madrid.
- AS Roma give away less, 1.05 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: AS Roma 20.6 (7.0 on target), Real Madrid 18.9 (7.6 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): AS Roma 67.9%, Real Madrid 70.5%.
| AS Roma | Per match | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.41 |
| 1.05 | xG conceded | 1.20 |
| 2.80 | Goals | 2.57 |
| 20.6 | Shots | 18.9 |
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 7.6 |
| 2.4 | Big chances missed | 2.6 |
| 67.9 | Pressure share % | 70.5 |
| 20.6 | Tackles | 15.0 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 8.4 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 7 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings AS Roma won 2, drew 0 and lost 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov 2018 | AS Roma | 0 – 2 | Real Madrid |
| 19 Sep 2018 | Real Madrid | 3 – 0 | AS Roma |
| 8 Mar 2016 | Real Madrid | 2 – 0 | AS Roma |
| 17 Feb 2016 | AS Roma | 0 – 2 | Real Madrid |
| 5 Mar 2008 | Real Madrid | 1 – 2 | AS Roma |
| 19 Feb 2008 | AS Roma | 2 – 1 | Real Madrid |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open AS Roma vs Real Madrid in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.