Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Champions League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Aston Villa host Fenerbahce in the UEFA Champions League on Thursday 15 October 2026. The bookmakers make Aston Villa narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 25% and Fenerbahce at 23%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Aston Villa -0.75 at 2.02, Fenerbahce at 1.86. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.83, under 2.04, which gives over 53%.
Form in numbers
- Fenerbahce create more: 1.76 expected goals a match against 0.93 for Aston Villa.
- Shots a match: Aston Villa 9.6 (2.4 on target), Fenerbahce 13.7 (5.9 on target).
| Aston Villa | Per match | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.76 |
| 1.77 | xG conceded | – |
| 0.80 | Goals | 1.29 |
| 9.6 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 2.4 | Shots on target | 5.9 |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | – |
| 32.4 | Pressure share % | – |
| 16.2 | Tackles | 20.9 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 13.6 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 7 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 1 meetings Aston Villa won 1, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2026 | Fenerbahce | 0 – 1 | Aston Villa |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.