Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn Prediction and Stats | Bundesliga Gameweek 10
Bundesliga · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · BayArena, Leverkusen · updated 2026-11-13
Bayer 04 Leverkusen welcome Paderborn to BayArena in Leverkusen in Bundesliga Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 56% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 60% win rate. Paderborn have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 22% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Bayer 04 Leverkusen are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 24% and Paderborn at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.89, Paderborn 1.17.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: form and key numbers
In style Bayer 04 Leverkusen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.00 a match created, 1.61 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 18.3 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 58.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Paderborn: form and key numbers
In style Paderborn play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 1.55 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.3).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 49.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn: season averages side by side
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Per match this season | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 2.2 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 2.00 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.26 |
| 1.61 | xG conceded | 1.55 |
| 18.3 | Shots | 13.6 |
| 6.0 | On target | 3.4 |
| 58.9 | Possession % | 49.8 |
| 22% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 7.2 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.89 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Players to watch
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Aleix García CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 78 · Ball circulator, Press-resistant (top 1% of his position)
- Ibrahim Maza AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 66 · Dribbler, High shot volume (top 12% of his position)
Paderborn
- Nahuel Noll GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 73 · Long passer, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
- Tjark Scheller CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 64 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick, 30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 77
Patrik Schick, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in goals, luck taken out and expected goals. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 77
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 71
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.77 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.71 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 4.47 / 90 | 94% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 xG/shot | 86% |
| Key passes | 1.15 / 90 | 77% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Patrik Schick is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Patrik Schick's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn prediction
Bayer 04 Leverkusen should have more of the ball, with Paderborn likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Bayer 04 Leverkusen work the ball wide and cross; Paderborn are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.89 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1.17 for Paderborn - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 59%. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-1 Paderborn
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn: what the numbers say
- 1. Bayer 04 Leverkusen unbeaten (win or draw) 77% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 59% by the model, 3.05 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn: questions and answers
When is Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 10.
Where is Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn played?
At BayArena, Leverkusen, Bayer 04 Leverkusen's home ground.
Who will win Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are the favourites: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 54%, draw 24%, Paderborn 23%. Our prediction is Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-1 Paderborn.
Who is the player to watch in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn?
Patrik Schick of Bayer 04 Leverkusen: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 77 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.