Elversberg vs SC Freiburg Prediction and Stats | Bundesliga Gameweek 10
Bundesliga · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg · updated 2026-11-13
Elversberg welcome SC Freiburg to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg in Bundesliga Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
Elversberg have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 44% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 75% win rate. SC Freiburg have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, SC Freiburg are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 23% and Elversberg at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Elversberg 1.42, SC Freiburg 2.04.
- Over 2.5 goals: 67% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Elversberg: form and key numbers
In style Elversberg are happy without the ball, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 2.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.7).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 46.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
SC Freiburg: form and key numbers
In style SC Freiburg press high, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.87 a match created, 1.07 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 15.9 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 51.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Elversberg vs SC Freiburg: season averages side by side
| Elversberg | Per match this season | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 2.2 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.87 |
| 2.23 | xG conceded | 1.07 |
| 11.2 | Shots | 15.9 |
| 4.7 | On target | 5.2 |
| 46.0 | Possession % | 51.8 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
Elversberg
- Nicolas Kristof GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 69 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Maximilian Rohr CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 65 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 1% of his position)
SC Freiburg
- Philipp Treu RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Hard to dribble past, Secure passer (top 4% of his position)
- Derry Scherhant LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 54 · Crosser, Big-chance creator (top 20% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic, 23 · SC Freiburg · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 62
Igor Matanovic, 23, plays as a centre-forward for SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in duels won and shots. Weakest in shot quality (xG per shot). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 62
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 57
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 8.78 / 90 | 86% |
| Shots | 4.32 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots on target | 50% | 83% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.18 / 90 | 82% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.54 / 90 | 62% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, High shot volume, Accurate shooter.
- What Igor Matanovic is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Igor Matanovic's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Elversberg vs SC Freiburg prediction
SC Freiburg should have more of the ball, with Elversberg likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 1.42 for Elversberg and 2.04 for SC Freiburg - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 66%. SC Freiburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Elversberg 1-2 SC Freiburg
Elversberg vs SC Freiburg: what the numbers say
- 1. SC Freiburg unbeaten (win or draw) 74% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 67% by the model, 3.46 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.7 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Elversberg vs SC Freiburg: questions and answers
When is Elversberg vs SC Freiburg?
Elversberg vs SC Freiburg is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 10.
Where is Elversberg vs SC Freiburg played?
At URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg, Elversberg's home ground.
Who will win Elversberg vs SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg are the favourites: Elversberg 26%, draw 23%, SC Freiburg 51%. Our prediction is Elversberg 1-2 SC Freiburg.
Who is the player to watch in Elversberg vs SC Freiburg?
Igor Matanovic of SC Freiburg: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Elversberg vs SC Freiburg?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.