Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Stats | Bundesliga Gameweek 10
Bundesliga · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Stadion im Borussia-Park, Mönchengladbach · updated 2026-11-13
Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome Borussia Dortmund to Stadion im Borussia-Park in Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.8 goals a game and winning 11% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate. Borussia Dortmund have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Borussia Dortmund are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 22% and Borussia Mönchengladbach at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.22, Borussia Dortmund 2.03.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Borussia Mönchengladbach: form and key numbers
In style Borussia Mönchengladbach are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 2.34 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.9).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 44.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.64.
Borussia Dortmund: form and key numbers
In style Borussia Dortmund keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 53.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 56% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund: season averages side by side
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Per match this season | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 2.8 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.65 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.55 |
| 2.34 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 15.3 | Shots | 15.3 |
| 4.8 | On target | 5.6 |
| 44.6 | Possession % | 53.7 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 56% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 44% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.9 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.64 | Average rating | 6.98 |
Players to watch
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Shuto Machino CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 57 · Rarely wastes a big chance, Dominant in the air (top 14% of his position)
- Florian Neuhaus CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 51 · Chance creator, Press-resistant (top 6% of his position)
Borussia Dortmund
- Waldemar Anton CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 74 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Joey Veerman CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 71 · Long passer, Press-resistant (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy, 30 · Borussia Dortmund · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 81
Serhou Guirassy, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in expected goals and goals, luck taken out. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 81
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 74
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.47 / 90 | 97% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.46 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots | 3.08 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 1.67 / 90 | 90% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 xG/shot | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, High shot volume.
- What Serhou Guirassy is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Serhou Guirassy's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Borussia Dortmund should have more of the ball, with Borussia Mönchengladbach likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Borussia Mönchengladbach are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Borussia Dortmund press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.22 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.03 for Borussia Dortmund - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 62%. Borussia Dortmund have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund: what the numbers say
- 1. Borussia Dortmund win, the likeliest result 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 63% by the model, 3.25 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 8.0 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund: questions and answers
When is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 10.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund played?
At Stadion im Borussia-Park, Mönchengladbach, Borussia Mönchengladbach's home ground.
Who will win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund are the favourites: Borussia Mönchengladbach 22%, draw 22%, Borussia Dortmund 56%. Our prediction is Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who is the player to watch in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 81 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.