Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Prediction and Stats | Bundesliga Gameweek 10
Bundesliga · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Wohninvest Weserstadion, Bremen · updated 2026-11-13
Werder Bremen welcome Hamburger SV to Wohninvest Weserstadion in Bremen in Bundesliga Gameweek 10 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
Werder Bremen have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 44% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 75% win rate. Hamburger SV have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 44% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 2.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Werder Bremen are clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 21% and Hamburger SV at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Werder Bremen 2.19, Hamburger SV 1.10.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Werder Bremen: form and key numbers
In style Werder Bremen play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.63 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.3).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 78% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Hamburger SV: form and key numbers
In style Hamburger SV are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.94 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 42.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV: season averages side by side
| Werder Bremen | Per match this season | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 2.2 |
| 1.63 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.06 |
| 1.50 | xG conceded | 1.94 |
| 15.7 | Shots | 11.7 |
| 6.4 | On target | 3.9 |
| 47.6 | Possession % | 42.8 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 11% |
| 78% | Both teams scored % | 44% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.96 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Players to watch
Werder Bremen
- Youri Regeer DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 71 · Ball-winner, Blocks shots (top 14% of his position)
- Amos Pieper CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Disciplined, Ball-winner (top 1% of his position)
Hamburger SV
- Miro Muheim LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Chance creator, Creator (top 3% of his position)
- Yussuf Poulsen CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 56 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Niclas Füllkrug
Niclas Füllkrug, 33 · Werder Bremen · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 81
Niclas Füllkrug, 33, plays as a centre-forward for Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in shots on target and aerial duels won. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 81
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 61% | 95% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.86 / 90 | 92% |
| Shots | 3.98 / 90 | 89% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.73 / 90 | 87% |
| Expected goals | 0.63 / 90 | 84% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Dominant in the air, High shot volume.
⚠ 9 goals from only 5.2 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Niclas Füllkrug is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Niclas Füllkrug's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV prediction
Werder Bremen should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.19 for Werder Bremen and 1.10 for Hamburger SV - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 60%. Werder Bremen have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Werder Bremen 2-1 Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV: what the numbers say
- 1. Werder Bremen win, the likeliest result 62% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 64% by the model, 3.29 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 8.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV: questions and answers
When is Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV?
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 10.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV played?
At Wohninvest Weserstadion, Bremen, Werder Bremen's home ground.
Who will win Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV?
Werder Bremen are the favourites: Werder Bremen 62%, draw 21%, Hamburger SV 17%. Our prediction is Werder Bremen 2-1 Hamburger SV.
Who is the player to watch in Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV?
Niclas Füllkrug of Werder Bremen: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 81 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.