Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 8
Bundesliga · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 14:30 UTC · BayArena, Leverkusen · updated 2026-10-17
Bayer 04 Leverkusen welcome VfB Stuttgart to BayArena in Leverkusen in Bundesliga Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. VfB Stuttgart have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Bayer 04 Leverkusen are clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 19% and VfB Stuttgart at 19%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.51, VfB Stuttgart 1.36.
- Over 2.5 goals: 74% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: form and key numbers
In style Bayer 04 Leverkusen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.40 a match created, 1.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 21.2 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 59.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
VfB Stuttgart: form and key numbers
In style VfB Stuttgart keep the ball, are strong in the air, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.94 a match created, 2.08 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 17.2 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 54.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart: season averages side by side
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Per match this season | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.8 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 2.40 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.94 |
| 1.25 | xG conceded | 2.08 |
| 21.2 | Shots | 17.2 |
| 6.4 | On target | 5.8 |
| 59.6 | Possession % | 54.3 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 8.0 | Corners | 6.7 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.94 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Aleix García CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 77 · Ball circulator, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Patrik Schick CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 68 · Clinical finisher, High shot volume (top 4% of his position)
VfB Stuttgart
- Fabian Bredlow GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 69 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
- Jeff Chabot CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Maximilian Mittelstädt
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29 · VfB Stuttgart · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 84
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29, plays as a wing-back for VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and accurate crosses. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 84
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 81
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 80
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.54 / 90 | 99% |
| Accurate crosses | 3.08 / 90 | 96% |
| Key passes | 3.08 / 90 | 96% |
| Interceptions | 1.85 / 90 | 91% |
| Tackles | 3.08 / 90 | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Creator, Crosser, Chance creator.
- What Maximilian Mittelstädt is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Maximilian Mittelstädt's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart prediction
Bayer 04 Leverkusen should have more of the ball; Bayer 04 Leverkusen work the ball wide and cross; VfB Stuttgart are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals - 2.51 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1.36 for VfB Stuttgart - with over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 69%. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-1 VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win 62% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 74% by the model, 3.87 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Friday 23 October 2026
- Paderborn vs Hamburger SV Saturday 24 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Schalke 04 Saturday 24 October 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Saturday 24 October 2026
- FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin Saturday 24 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Elversberg Saturday 24 October 2026
- Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 24 October 2026
- TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Sunday 25 October 2026
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart: questions and answers
When is Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 8.
Where is Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart played?
At BayArena, Leverkusen, Bayer 04 Leverkusen's home ground.
Who will win Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are the favourites: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 62%, draw 19%, VfB Stuttgart 19%. Our prediction is Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-1 VfB Stuttgart.
Who is the player to watch in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Maximilian Mittelstädt of VfB Stuttgart: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 84 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 74%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.