TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 7
Bundesliga · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 14:30 UTC · PreZero Arena, Sinsheim · updated 2026-10-11
TSG Hoffenheim welcome Bayer 04 Leverkusen to PreZero Arena in Sinsheim in Bundesliga Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
TSG Hoffenheim have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 2.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Bayer 04 Leverkusen are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 21% and TSG Hoffenheim at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: TSG Hoffenheim 1.75, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.20.
- Over 2.5 goals: 76% · both teams to score: 74%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
TSG Hoffenheim: form and key numbers
In style TSG Hoffenheim keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.84 a match created, 1.61 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.2).
- Shots: 18.6 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 58.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: form and key numbers
In style Bayer 04 Leverkusen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.40 a match created, 1.24 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 21.2 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 59.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: season averages side by side
| TSG Hoffenheim | Per match this season | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 2.8 |
| 2.6 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.84 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.40 |
| 1.61 | xG conceded | 1.24 |
| 18.6 | Shots | 21.2 |
| 4.8 | On target | 6.4 |
| 58.4 | Possession % | 59.6 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 8.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.94 |
Players to watch
TSG Hoffenheim
- Vladimír Coufal RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 6% of his position)
- Ozan Kabak CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 63 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Aleix García CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 76 · Ball circulator, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Ibrahim Maza AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 67 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick, 30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 68
Patrik Schick, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in goals and shots. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 / 90 | 96% |
| Shots | 4.71 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.84 / 90 | 91% |
| Key passes | 1.57 / 90 | 73% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 xG/shot | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Patrik Schick is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Patrik Schick's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction
Bayer 04 Leverkusen should have more of the ball; TSG Hoffenheim are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Bayer 04 Leverkusen work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 1.75 for TSG Hoffenheim and 2.20 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen - with over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 74%. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: TSG Hoffenheim 1-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 76% by the model, 3.96 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 74% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: questions and answers
When is TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 7.
Where is TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen played?
At PreZero Arena, Sinsheim, TSG Hoffenheim's home ground.
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are the favourites: TSG Hoffenheim 31%, draw 21%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 48%. Our prediction is TSG Hoffenheim 1-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Who is the player to watch in TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Patrik Schick of Bayer 04 Leverkusen: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 76%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.