FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 7
Bundesliga · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 13:30 UTC · WWK Arena, Augsburg · updated 2026-10-10
FC Augsburg welcome FC Union Berlin to WWK Arena in Augsburg in Bundesliga Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
FC Augsburg have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. FC Union Berlin have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 4.3 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 5.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Augsburg are clear favourites at 73%, with the draw at 14% and FC Union Berlin at 13%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Augsburg 3.19, FC Union Berlin 1.38.
- Over 2.5 goals: 83% · both teams to score: 72%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FC Augsburg: form and key numbers
In style FC Augsburg are happy without the ball, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.83 a match created, 2.31 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.7).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 39.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
FC Union Berlin: form and key numbers
In style FC Union Berlin are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 2.48 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.57.
FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin: season averages side by side
| FC Augsburg | Per match this season | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.8 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 4.3 |
| 1.83 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.26 |
| 2.31 | xG conceded | 2.48 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 7.3 | On target | 5.0 |
| 39.8 | Possession % | 45.8 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.99 | Average rating | 6.57 |
Players to watch
FC Augsburg
- Finn Dahmen GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 7% of his position)
- Marius Wolf RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Creator, Hard to dribble past (top 3% of his position)
FC Union Berlin
- Leopold Querfeld CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Felix Uduokhai CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 61 · Blocks shots, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Gregoritsch
Michael Gregoritsch, 32 · FC Augsburg · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 70
Michael Gregoritsch, 32, plays as a centre-forward for FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in shots on target and aerial duels won. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 70
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 89% | 97% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.99 / 90 | 86% |
| Goals | 0.92 / 90 | 82% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 72% |
| Expected goals | 0.57 / 90 | 65% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Dominant in the air, Clinical finisher.
- What Michael Gregoritsch is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Gregoritsch's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin prediction
FC Union Berlin should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 4.6 goals - 3.19 for FC Augsburg and 1.38 for FC Union Berlin - with over 2.5 goals at 83% and both teams scoring at 72%. FC Augsburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Augsburg 3-1 FC Union Berlin
FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin betting tips
- Tip 1: FC Augsburg to win 73% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 83% by the model, 4.57 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 72% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin: questions and answers
When is FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 7.
Where is FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin played?
At WWK Arena, Augsburg, FC Augsburg's home ground.
Who will win FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg are the favourites: FC Augsburg 73%, draw 14%, FC Union Berlin 13%. Our prediction is FC Augsburg 3-1 FC Union Berlin.
Who is the player to watch in FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin?
Michael Gregoritsch of FC Augsburg: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 83%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.