FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 7
Bundesliga · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Mewa Arena, Mainz · updated 2026-10-10
FSV Mainz 05 welcome Werder Bremen to Mewa Arena in Mainz in Bundesliga Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
FSV Mainz 05 have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Werder Bremen have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FSV Mainz 05 are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 20% and Werder Bremen at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 2.33, Werder Bremen 1.41.
- Over 2.5 goals: 72% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FSV Mainz 05: form and key numbers
In style FSV Mainz 05 press high, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.31 a match created, 1.56 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 18.3 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
Werder Bremen: form and key numbers
In style Werder Bremen are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.16 a match created, 1.68 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.2).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 44.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: season averages side by side
| FSV Mainz 05 | Per match this season | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 5 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 2.31 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.16 |
| 1.56 | xG conceded | 1.68 |
| 18.3 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 6.3 | On target | 6.0 |
| 51.0 | Possession % | 44.6 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.98 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
FSV Mainz 05
- Fabio Gruber CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 7% of his position)
- Sheraldo Becker LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63 · Big-chance creator, High shot volume (top 9% of his position)
Werder Bremen
- Amos Pieper CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 63 · Disciplined, Reads the game (top 7% of his position)
- Youri Regeer DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 63 · Ball-winner, Press-resistant (top 20% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz, 29 · FSV Mainz 05 · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 75
Phillip Tietz, 29, plays as a centre-forward for FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and goals. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 75
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 5.25 / 90 | 95% |
| Goals | 1.00 / 90 | 90% |
| Shots | 4.00 / 90 | 87% |
| Duels won | 7.50 / 90 | 87% |
| Expected goals | 0.64 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Clinical finisher, High shot volume.
- What Phillip Tietz is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Phillip Tietz's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen prediction
FSV Mainz 05 should have more of the ball, with Werder Bremen likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; FSV Mainz 05 are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.33 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.41 for Werder Bremen - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 69%. FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen betting tips
- Tip 1: FSV Mainz 05 to win 57% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 72% by the model, 3.74 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: questions and answers
When is FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 7.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen played?
At Mewa Arena, Mainz, FSV Mainz 05's home ground.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
FSV Mainz 05 are the favourites: FSV Mainz 05 57%, draw 20%, Werder Bremen 22%. Our prediction is FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Werder Bremen.
Who is the player to watch in FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
Phillip Tietz of FSV Mainz 05: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 75 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.