Bologna vs Udinese Prediction and Stats | Serie A Gameweek 12
Serie A · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna · updated 2026-11-13
Bologna welcome Udinese to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna in Serie A Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Bologna have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 45% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 20% win rate. Udinese have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 9% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Bologna are clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 21% and Udinese at 15%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Bologna 2.11, Udinese 0.95.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Bologna: form and key numbers
In style Bologna cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.63 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.0).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 49.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Udinese: form and key numbers
In style Udinese cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created, 1.88 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.2).
- Shots: 14.6 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Bologna vs Udinese: season averages side by side
| Bologna | Per match this season | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.63 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.11 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.88 |
| 13.6 | Shots | 14.6 |
| 4.5 | On target | 4.5 |
| 49.5 | Possession % | 50.5 |
| 9% | Clean sheets % | 9% |
| 64% | Both teams scored % | 64% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.80 | Average rating | 6.74 |
Players to watch
Bologna
- Lewis Ferguson CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 65 · Secure passer, Ball circulator (top 5% of his position)
- Eivind Helland CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 63 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 14% of his position)
Udinese
- Nicolò Zaniolo SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 73 · Chance creator, Creator (top 9% of his position)
- Matteo Palma CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 59 · Duel winner, Hard to dribble past (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Federico Bernardeschi
Federico Bernardeschi, 32 · Bologna · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 69
Federico Bernardeschi, 32, plays as a winger for Bologna in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 69
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 63
- LW · Winger Competent, 41
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.36 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots | 3.22 / 90 | 88% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.26 / 90 | 88% |
| Big chances created | 0.46 / 90 | 77% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.24 / 90 | 71% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Crosser.
- What Federico Bernardeschi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Federico Bernardeschi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bologna vs Udinese prediction
Udinese should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 2.11 for Bologna and 0.95 for Udinese - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 55%. Bologna have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bologna 2-1 Udinese
Bologna vs Udinese: what the numbers say
- 1. Bologna win, the likeliest result 64% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 59% by the model, 3.07 goals expected
- 3. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.7 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Serie A previews
- Lazio vs Lecce Saturday 21 November 2026
- Como vs Cagliari Saturday 21 November 2026
- Parma vs Roma Saturday 21 November 2026
- Napoli vs Torino Saturday 21 November 2026
- Juventus vs Venezia Sunday 22 November 2026
- Sassuolo vs Genoa Sunday 22 November 2026
- AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026
- Atalanta vs Inter Sunday 22 November 2026
Bologna vs Udinese: questions and answers
When is Bologna vs Udinese?
Bologna vs Udinese is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 12.
Where is Bologna vs Udinese played?
At Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna, Bologna's home ground.
Who will win Bologna vs Udinese?
Bologna are the favourites: Bologna 64%, draw 21%, Udinese 15%. Our prediction is Bologna 2-1 Udinese.
Who is the player to watch in Bologna vs Udinese?
Federico Bernardeschi of Bologna: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bologna vs Udinese?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.