Lazio vs Lecce Prediction and Stats | Serie A Gameweek 12
Serie A · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Olimpico, Roma · updated 2026-11-13
Lazio welcome Lecce to Stadio Olimpico in Roma in Serie A Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Lazio have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 82% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 44% win rate. Lecce have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lazio are clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 19% and Lecce at 12%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lazio 2.29, Lecce 0.87.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Lazio: form and key numbers
In style Lazio keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 1.57 a match created, 1.29 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.7).
- Shots: 13.9 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 53.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Lecce: form and key numbers
In style Lecce are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.18 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 12.1 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 41.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Lazio vs Lecce: season averages side by side
| Lazio | Per match this season | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.57 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.18 |
| 1.29 | xG conceded | 1.72 |
| 13.9 | Shots | 12.1 |
| 4.7 | On target | 4.6 |
| 53.6 | Possession % | 41.3 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 18% |
| 64% | Both teams scored % | 45% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.96 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Lazio
- Christos Mandas GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 29% of his position)
- Nuno Tavares LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 13% of his position)
Lecce
- Danilo Veiga RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
- Tiago Gabriel CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 64 · Box defender, Duel winner (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mattia Zaccagni
Mattia Zaccagni, 31 · Lazio · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 75
Mattia Zaccagni, 31, plays as a winger for Lazio in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 75
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.40 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.31 / 90 | 86% |
| Big chances created | 0.53 / 90 | 86% |
| Key passes | 2.45 / 90 | 86% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.07 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Mattia Zaccagni is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mattia Zaccagni's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lazio vs Lecce prediction
Lazio should have more of the ball, with Lecce likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Lazio press high to win the ball back; Lecce are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 2.29 for Lazio and 0.87 for Lecce - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 53%. Lazio have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lazio 2-1 Lecce
Lazio vs Lecce: what the numbers say
- 1. Lazio win, the likeliest result 69% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 61% by the model, 3.16 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.5 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Serie A previews
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- Juventus vs Venezia Sunday 22 November 2026
- Sassuolo vs Genoa Sunday 22 November 2026
- Bologna vs Udinese Sunday 22 November 2026
- AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026
- Atalanta vs Inter Sunday 22 November 2026
Lazio vs Lecce: questions and answers
When is Lazio vs Lecce?
Lazio vs Lecce is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 12.
Where is Lazio vs Lecce played?
At Stadio Olimpico, Roma, Lazio's home ground.
Who will win Lazio vs Lecce?
Lazio are the favourites: Lazio 69%, draw 19%, Lecce 12%. Our prediction is Lazio 2-1 Lecce.
Who is the player to watch in Lazio vs Lecce?
Mattia Zaccagni of Lazio: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 75 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs Lecce?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.