Napoli vs Torino Prediction and Stats | Serie A Gameweek 12
Serie A · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli · updated 2026-11-13
Napoli welcome Torino to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli in Serie A Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Napoli have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 36% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Torino have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 36% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Napoli are narrow favourites at 55%, with the draw at 24% and Torino at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Napoli 1.83, Torino 1.07.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Napoli: form and key numbers
In style Napoli cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.79 a match created, 1.39 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.7).
- Shots: 15.6 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Torino: form and key numbers
In style Torino are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.09 a match created, 1.54 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.0).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Napoli vs Torino: season averages side by side
| Napoli | Per match this season | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.79 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.09 |
| 1.39 | xG conceded | 1.54 |
| 15.6 | Shots | 10.6 |
| 5.6 | On target | 3.5 |
| 52.3 | Possession % | 50.3 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 9% |
| 55% | Both teams scored % | 73% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 1.1 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Players to watch
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 72 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
- Alex Meret GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 61 · Long passer, Secure passer (top 20% of his position)
Torino
- Ardian Ismajli CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 63 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Saúl Coco CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Hard to dribble past, Blocks shots (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne, 35 · Napoli · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 63
Kevin De Bruyne, 35, plays as an attacking midfielder for Napoli in Serie A. Strongest for his role in through balls and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 63
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 60
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Through balls | 0.14 / 90 | 99% |
| Key passes | 3.32 / 90 | 98% |
| Dispossessed | 0.72 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.31 / 90 | 91% |
| Big chances created | 0.29 / 90 | 73% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Through-ball threat, Chance creator, Press-resistant.
- What Kevin De Bruyne is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Kevin De Bruyne's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Napoli vs Torino prediction
Napoli should have more of the ball; Napoli work the ball wide and cross; Torino are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.83 for Napoli and 1.07 for Torino - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 56%. Napoli have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Napoli 2-1 Torino
Napoli vs Torino: what the numbers say
- 1. Napoli unbeaten (win or draw) 79% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 55% by the model, 2.90 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Serie A previews
- Lazio vs Lecce Saturday 21 November 2026
- Como vs Cagliari Saturday 21 November 2026
- Parma vs Roma Saturday 21 November 2026
- Juventus vs Venezia Sunday 22 November 2026
- Sassuolo vs Genoa Sunday 22 November 2026
- Bologna vs Udinese Sunday 22 November 2026
- AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026
- Atalanta vs Inter Sunday 22 November 2026
Napoli vs Torino: questions and answers
When is Napoli vs Torino?
Napoli vs Torino is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 12.
Where is Napoli vs Torino played?
At Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli, Napoli's home ground.
Who will win Napoli vs Torino?
Napoli are the favourites: Napoli 55%, draw 24%, Torino 21%. Our prediction is Napoli 2-1 Torino.
Who is the player to watch in Napoli vs Torino?
Kevin De Bruyne of Napoli: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Torino?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.