Como vs Cagliari Prediction and Stats | Serie A Gameweek 12
Serie A · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como · updated 2026-11-13
Como welcome Cagliari to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Como in Serie A Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Como have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 64% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 43% win rate. Cagliari have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 45% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 60% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Como are clear favourites at 60%, with the draw at 24% and Cagliari at 16%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Como 1.84, Cagliari 0.85.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Como: form and key numbers
In style Como keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.71 a match created, 1.33 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 18.9 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 61.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Cagliari: form and key numbers
In style Cagliari are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.17 a match created, 1.82 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.9).
- Shots: 10.9 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 40.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 36% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Como vs Cagliari: season averages side by side
| Como | Per match this season | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.71 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.17 |
| 1.33 | xG conceded | 1.82 |
| 18.9 | Shots | 10.9 |
| 5.8 | On target | 4.0 |
| 61.6 | Possession % | 40.4 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 36% |
| 55% | Both teams scored % | 36% |
| 6.6 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 1.1 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 7.00 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Como
- Luis Milla CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 74 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 1% of his position)
- Martin Baturina AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 74 · Draws fouls, Through-ball threat (top 1% of his position)
Cagliari
- Elia Caprile GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 81 · Shot-stopper, Box defender (top 8% of his position)
- Adam Obert LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Reads the game, Chance creator (top 14% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Nico Paz
Nico Paz, 22 · Como · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 82
Nico Paz, 22, plays as an attacking midfielder for Como in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and successful dribbles. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 82
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 78
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 5.03 / 90 | 100% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.97 / 90 | 96% |
| Through balls | 0.22 / 90 | 94% |
| Big chances created | 0.22 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected goals | 0.35 / 90 | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Dribbler, Through-ball threat.
- What Nico Paz is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Como vs Cagliari prediction
Como should have more of the ball, with Cagliari likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Como work the ball wide and cross; Cagliari go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.84 for Como and 0.85 for Cagliari - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 49%. Como have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Como 2-1 Cagliari
Como vs Cagliari: what the numbers say
- 1. Como win, the likeliest result 60% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.69 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 10.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Como vs Cagliari: questions and answers
When is Como vs Cagliari?
Como vs Cagliari is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 12.
Where is Como vs Cagliari played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como, Como's home ground.
Who will win Como vs Cagliari?
Como are the favourites: Como 60%, draw 24%, Cagliari 16%. Our prediction is Como 2-1 Cagliari.
Who is the player to watch in Como vs Cagliari?
Nico Paz of Como: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 82 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Como vs Cagliari?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.