Bournemouth AFC vs Leeds United Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 9
Premier League · Saturday 31 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Bournemouth AFC welcome Leeds United to Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth in Premier League Gameweek 9 action on Saturday 31 October 2026.
Bournemouth AFC have played 8 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Leeds United have played 8 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Bournemouth AFC 42%, the draw 29%, Leeds United 30%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Bournemouth AFC -0.25 at 1.88, Leeds United at 2.03. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.89, under 2.00, which gives over 51%.
Bournemouth AFC: form and key numbers
In style Bournemouth AFC press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created, 1.07 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.3).
- Shots: 14.5 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Leeds United: form and key numbers
In style Leeds United play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 1.36 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.1).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Bournemouth AFC vs Leeds United: season averages side by side
| Bournemouth AFC | Per match | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| 1.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.26 |
| 1.07 | xG conceded | 1.36 |
| 1.50 | Goals | 1.13 |
| 14.5 | Shots | 11.9 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 2.6 | Big chances missed | 1.4 |
| 57.7 | Pressure share % | 43.5 |
| 16.6 | Tackles | 15.8 |
| 13.5 | Fouls | 12.9 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Bournemouth AFC vs Leeds United: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Bournemouth AFC have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 0 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Bournemouth AFC 4, Leeds United 4 - 4.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Bournemouth AFC 2-2 Leeds United (April 22nd 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Bournemouth AFC won 0, drew 2 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | Bournemouth AFC | 2 – 2 | Leeds United |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Leeds United | 2 – 2 | Bournemouth AFC |
Players to watch
Bournemouth AFC
- Adrien Truffert LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 71 · Crosser, Creator (top 9% of his position)
- Ryan Christie CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 65 · Gets into scoring positions, Creator (top 7% of his position)
Leeds United
- James Trafford GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 76 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 10% of his position)
- Tarik Muharemović CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 68 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: James Hill
James Hill, 24 · AFC Bournemouth · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 73
James Hill, 24, plays as a centre-back for AFC Bournemouth in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in duels won and tackles. Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 73
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 65
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 57
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 6.75 / 90 | 98% |
| Tackles | 2.75 / 90 | 97% |
| Long balls | 4.50 / 90 | 96% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.50 / 90 | 94% |
| Blocked shots | 1.13 / 90 | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Ball-winner, Long passer.
- What James Hill is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open James Hill's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bournemouth AFC vs Leeds United prediction
Bournemouth AFC should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.40 for Bournemouth AFC and 1.12 for Leeds United - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Bournemouth AFC 1-1 Leeds United
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Bournemouth AFC vs Leeds United betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 42%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 54% by the model, 2.52 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Bournemouth AFC vs Leeds United in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Bournemouth AFC vs Leeds United: questions and answers
When is Bournemouth AFC vs Leeds United?
Bournemouth AFC vs Leeds United is on Saturday 31 October 2026, in Premier League Gameweek 9.
Where is Bournemouth AFC vs Leeds United played?
At Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Bournemouth AFC's home ground.
Who will win Bournemouth AFC vs Leeds United?
It is close: Bournemouth AFC 42%, draw 29%, Leeds United 30%. Our prediction is Bournemouth AFC 1-1 Leeds United.
Who is the player to watch in Bournemouth AFC vs Leeds United?
James Hill of AFC Bournemouth: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bournemouth AFC vs Leeds United?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
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