Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 8
Bundesliga · Friday 30 October 2026 · 19:30 UTC · URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg · updated 2026-10-16
Elversberg welcome FSV Mainz 05 to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg in Bundesliga Gameweek 8 action on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
Elversberg have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. FSV Mainz 05 have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.6 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 4.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FSV Mainz 05 are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 22% and Elversberg at 35%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Elversberg 1.77, FSV Mainz 05 1.96.
- Over 2.5 goals: 72% · both teams to score: 72%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Elversberg: form and key numbers
In style Elversberg are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.99 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.5).
- Shots: 9.6 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
FSV Mainz 05: form and key numbers
In style FSV Mainz 05 press high, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.38 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 19.2 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: season averages side by side
| Elversberg | Per match this season | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 2.6 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.29 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.38 |
| 1.99 | xG conceded | 1.66 |
| 9.6 | Shots | 19.2 |
| 4.0 | On target | 6.0 |
| 45.2 | Possession % | 50.2 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 3.6 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.93 |
Players to watch
Elversberg
- Nicolas Kristof GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 68 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
- Lukas Pinckert CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 59 · Blocks shots, Box defender (top 3% of his position)
FSV Mainz 05
- Anthony Caci RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 69 · Gets into scoring positions, Ball-winner (top 4% of his position)
- Fabio Gruber CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Ball-winner, Dominant in the air (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz, 29 · FSV Mainz 05 · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 70
Phillip Tietz, 29, plays as a centre-forward for FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and shots. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 70
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 4.80 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 4.20 / 90 | 89% |
| Duels won | 7.00 / 90 | 86% |
| Goals | 0.80 / 90 | 79% |
| Expected goals | 0.60 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, High shot volume, Duel winner.
- What Phillip Tietz is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Phillip Tietz's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction
FSV Mainz 05 should have more of the ball, with Elversberg likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Elversberg like to take players on; FSV Mainz 05 are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 1.77 for Elversberg and 1.96 for FSV Mainz 05 - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 72%. FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Elversberg 1-2 FSV Mainz 05
Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 betting tips
- Tip 1: FSV Mainz 05 win or draw (double chance) 65% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 72% by the model, 3.74 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 72% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Friday 23 October 2026
- Paderborn vs Hamburger SV Saturday 24 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Schalke 04 Saturday 24 October 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Saturday 24 October 2026
- FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin Saturday 24 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Elversberg Saturday 24 October 2026
- Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 24 October 2026
- TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Sunday 25 October 2026
Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: questions and answers
When is Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 is on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 8.
Where is Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
At URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg, Elversberg's home ground.
Who will win Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 are the favourites: Elversberg 35%, draw 22%, FSV Mainz 05 43%. Our prediction is Elversberg 1-2 FSV Mainz 05.
Who is the player to watch in Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Phillip Tietz of FSV Mainz 05: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.