Excelsior vs Twente Prediction and Betting Tips | Eredivisie Gameweek 11
Eredivisie · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-01
Excelsior welcome Twente to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Rotterdam in Eredivisie Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Excelsior have played 10 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 30% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate. Twente have played 10 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Twente are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 22% and Excelsior at 20%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Excelsior +1 at 1.83, Twente at 1.90. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.92, under 1.79, which gives over 48%.
Excelsior: form and key numbers
In style Excelsior are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created, 1.70 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.4).
- Shots: 10.7 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 44.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Twente: form and key numbers
In style Twente keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.29 a match created, 0.88 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 20.0 a match, 6.8 on target.
- Possession: 57.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Excelsior vs Twente: season averages side by side
| Excelsior | Per match | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| 1.36 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.29 |
| 1.70 | xG conceded | 0.88 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 1.90 |
| 10.7 | Shots | 20.0 |
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 6.8 |
| 1.0 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 38.9 | Pressure share % | 69.0 |
| 14.0 | Tackles | 12.9 |
| 11.7 | Fouls | 11.9 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 0.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 10 and 10 measured matches.
Excelsior vs Twente: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Excelsior have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Excelsior 1, Twente 0 - 0.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Twente 0-0 Excelsior (January 24th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Excelsior won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Twente | 0 – 0 | Excelsior |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Excelsior | 1 – 0 | Twente |
Players to watch
Excelsior
- Irakli Yegoian WF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 37 · Big-chance creator, Crosser (top 21% of his position)
- Casper Widell CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 37 · Dominant in the air, Blocks shots (top 12% of his position)
Twente
- Daouda Weidmann CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 41 · Gets into scoring positions, Creator (top 17% of his position)
- Sondre Ørjasæter LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 35 · Gets into scoring positions, Press-resistant (top 25% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Wout Weghorst
Wout Weghorst, 34 · FC Twente · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 52
Wout Weghorst, 34, plays as a centre-forward for FC Twente in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 52
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 47
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 xG/shot | 85% |
| Expected goals | 0.60 / 90 | 75% |
| Shots on target | 52% | 75% |
| Key passes | 1.67 / 90 | 50% |
| Shots | 3.24 / 90 | 49% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots.
- What Wout Weghorst is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Wout Weghorst's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Excelsior vs Twente prediction
Twente should have more of the ball, with Excelsior likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Excelsior are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Twente work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.13 for Excelsior and 1.80 for Twente - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 57%. Twente have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Excelsior 1-2 Twente
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Excelsior vs Twente betting tips
- Tip 1: Twente to win 58% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.93 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Eredivisie previews
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- FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam Sunday 1 November 2026
Excelsior vs Twente: questions and answers
When is Excelsior vs Twente?
Excelsior vs Twente is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Eredivisie Gameweek 11.
Where is Excelsior vs Twente played?
At Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam, Excelsior's home ground.
Who will win Excelsior vs Twente?
Twente are the favourites: Excelsior 20%, draw 22%, Twente 58%. Our prediction is Excelsior 1-2 Twente.
Who is the player to watch in Excelsior vs Twente?
Wout Weghorst of FC Twente: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 52 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Excelsior vs Twente?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.