PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag Prediction and Betting Tips | Eredivisie Gameweek 11
Eredivisie · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 11:15 UTC · MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle · updated 2026-10-25
PEC Zwolle welcome ADO Den Haag to MAC³PARK Stadion in Zwolle in Eredivisie Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 11:15 UTC.
PEC Zwolle have played 10 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. ADO Den Haag have played 10 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 10% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: PEC Zwolle 41%, the draw 25%, ADO Den Haag 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.61, ADO Den Haag 1.43.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
PEC Zwolle: form and key numbers
In style PEC Zwolle are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.15 a match created, 2.18 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 40.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
ADO Den Haag: form and key numbers
In style ADO Den Haag play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.10 a match created, 1.99 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 12.5 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 48.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag: season averages side by side
| PEC Zwolle | Per match this season | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.15 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.10 |
| 2.18 | xG conceded | 1.99 |
| 11.7 | Shots | 12.5 |
| 4.4 | On target | 3.6 |
| 40.8 | Possession % | 48.1 |
| 10% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 4.1 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.68 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
PEC Zwolle
- Ryan Thomas DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 42 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 9% of his position)
- Damian van der Haar LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 33 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 19% of his position)
ADO Den Haag
- Kilian Nikièma GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 41 · Long passer, Secure passer (top 7% of his position)
- Pascal Mulder CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 40 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Juho Kilo
Juho Kilo, 24 · ADO Den Haag · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 42
Juho Kilo, 24, plays as a central midfielder for ADO Den Haag in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in long balls and dispossessed. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 42
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 39
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Long balls | 4.30 / 90 | 89% |
| Dispossessed | 0.30 / 90 | 85% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 69% |
| Tackles | 2.70 / 90 | 59% |
| Passes | 66.30 / 90 | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Long passer, Press-resistant.
- What Juho Kilo is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag prediction
ADO Den Haag should have more of the ball, with PEC Zwolle likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; PEC Zwolle are a threat in the air and from set pieces; ADO Den Haag go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.61 for PEC Zwolle and 1.43 for ADO Den Haag - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 62%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: PEC Zwolle 1-1 ADO Den Haag
PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.04 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag: questions and answers
When is PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?
PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 11:15 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 11.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag played?
At MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle, PEC Zwolle's home ground.
Who will win PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?
It is close: PEC Zwolle 41%, draw 25%, ADO Den Haag 33%. Our prediction is PEC Zwolle 1-1 ADO Den Haag.
Who is the player to watch in PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?
Juho Kilo of ADO Den Haag: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 42 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.