FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Bundesliga · Sunday 11 October 2026 · 13:30 UTC · RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne · updated 2026-10-09
FC Köln host Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga on Sunday 11 October 2026 at RheinEnergieStadion. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes FC Köln clear favourites at 61%, puts the draw at 17% and expects about 4.6 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Köln 2.88, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.75.
- Over 2.5 goals: 84% · both teams to score: 78%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, 20 · FC Köln · CB · Box defender
Moneyball Scout picks Jahmai Simpson-Pusey as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 37, defensive 63).
- Dribbled past: 0.00 per 90 minutes, better than 93% of centre-backs
- Duels won: 5.75 per 90 minutes, better than 80% of centre-backs
- Fouls committed: 0.50 per 90 minutes, better than 74% of centre-backs
Borussia Mönchengladbach score 1.5 goals a match this season from 1.86 expected: stopping them runs through Jahmai Simpson-Pusey.
Scout's notes: Hard to dribble past, Duel winner.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| FC Köln | Per match this season | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 4.0 |
| 1.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 |
| 2.10 | xG conceded | 3.12 |
| 17.0 | Shots | 16.5 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.3 |
| 49.5 | Possession % | 47.5 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.56 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
FC Köln
- Linton Maina midfielder · rating 7.12 · 4 apps
- Ragnar Ache forward · rating 6.96 · 4 apps
- Marvin Schwäbe goalkeeper · rating 6.87 · 4 apps
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Hugo Bolin midfielder · rating 7.14 · 4 apps
- Franck Honorat forward · rating 7.11 · 4 apps
- Lukas Ullrich midfielder · rating 6.65 · 3 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Friday 9 October 2026
- Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 10 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Sunday 11 October 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln Friday 16 October 2026
- Elversberg vs FC Augsburg Saturday 17 October 2026
- Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Saturday 17 October 2026
- Werder Bremen vs Paderborn Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.