FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 8
Bundesliga · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 14:30 UTC · WWK Arena, Augsburg · updated 2026-10-17
FC Augsburg welcome SC Freiburg to WWK Arena in Augsburg in Bundesliga Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
FC Augsburg have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. SC Freiburg have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, SC Freiburg are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 21% and FC Augsburg at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Augsburg 1.67, SC Freiburg 2.35.
- Over 2.5 goals: 76% · both teams to score: 74%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FC Augsburg: form and key numbers
In style FC Augsburg are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.11 a match created, 2.87 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.3).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 7.0 on target.
- Possession: 41.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
SC Freiburg: form and key numbers
In style SC Freiburg keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.06 a match created, 0.89 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.7).
- Shots: 17.2 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 52.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.01.
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg: season averages side by side
| FC Augsburg | Per match this season | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 5 |
| 2.7 | Goals scored | 2.8 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 2.11 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.06 |
| 2.87 | xG conceded | 0.89 |
| 16.2 | Shots | 17.2 |
| 7.0 | On target | 6.0 |
| 41.5 | Possession % | 52.8 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.96 | Average rating | 7.01 |
Players to watch
FC Augsburg
- Finn Dahmen GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 72 · Shot-stopper, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
- Marius Wolf RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Creator, Hard to dribble past (top 2% of his position)
SC Freiburg
- Igor Matanovic CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 69 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Matthias Ginter CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 66 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Gregoritsch
Michael Gregoritsch, 32 · FC Augsburg · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 77
Michael Gregoritsch, 32, plays as a centre-forward for FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in shots on target and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 77
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 83% | 99% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.25 xG/shot | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.77 / 90 | 86% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.65 / 90 | 85% |
| Goals | 0.78 / 90 | 77% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Michael Gregoritsch is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Gregoritsch's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg prediction
SC Freiburg should have more of the ball, with FC Augsburg likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 1.67 for FC Augsburg and 2.35 for SC Freiburg - with over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 74%. SC Freiburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: FC Augsburg 1-2 SC Freiburg
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg betting tips
- Tip 1: SC Freiburg win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 76% by the model, 4.02 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 74% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
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- FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Saturday 24 October 2026
- FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin Saturday 24 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Elversberg Saturday 24 October 2026
- Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 24 October 2026
- TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Sunday 25 October 2026
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg: questions and answers
When is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 8.
Where is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg played?
At WWK Arena, Augsburg, FC Augsburg's home ground.
Who will win FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg are the favourites: FC Augsburg 27%, draw 21%, SC Freiburg 53%. Our prediction is FC Augsburg 1-2 SC Freiburg.
Who is the player to watch in FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Michael Gregoritsch of FC Augsburg: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 77 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 76%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.