FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 8
Bundesliga · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Allianz Arena, Munich · updated 2026-10-17
FC Bayern München welcome Borussia Dortmund to Allianz Arena in Munich in Bundesliga Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
FC Bayern München have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.2 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 6.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. Borussia Dortmund have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Bayern München are narrow favourites at 55%, with the draw at 23% and Borussia Dortmund at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Bayern München 1.98, Borussia Dortmund 1.21.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FC Bayern München: form and key numbers
In style FC Bayern München keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 3.07 a match created, 0.83 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 23.2 a match, 9.0 on target.
- Possession: 70.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.20.
Borussia Dortmund: form and key numbers
In style Borussia Dortmund keep the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.79 a match created, 0.92 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 15.8 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 53.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: season averages side by side
| FC Bayern München | Per match this season | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 3.2 | Goals scored | 2.2 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 3.07 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.79 |
| 0.83 | xG conceded | 0.92 |
| 23.2 | Shots | 15.8 |
| 9.0 | On target | 6.0 |
| 70.4 | Possession % | 53.4 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 9.4 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 7.20 | Average rating | 7.00 |
Players to watch
FC Bayern München
- Luis Díaz LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 63 · Gets into scoring positions, Dribbler (top 16% of his position)
- Harry Kane CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 62 · High shot volume, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Borussia Dortmund
- Felix Nmecha CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 71 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 15% of his position)
- Waldemar Anton CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 70 · Reads the game, Hard to dribble past (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 89
Michael Olise, 24, plays as a winger for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 89
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 85
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 79
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.06 / 90 | 98% |
| Shots | 5.04 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 3.66 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.44 / 90 | 95% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.44 / 90 | 94% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser, High shot volume, Chance creator.
- What Michael Olise is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Olise's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
FC Bayern München should have more of the ball; FC Bayern München work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.98 for FC Bayern München and 1.21 for Borussia Dortmund - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 61%. FC Bayern München have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Bayern München 2-1 Borussia Dortmund
FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund betting tips
- Tip 1: FC Bayern München win or draw (double chance) 78% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.19 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Friday 23 October 2026
- Paderborn vs Hamburger SV Saturday 24 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Schalke 04 Saturday 24 October 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Saturday 24 October 2026
- FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin Saturday 24 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Elversberg Saturday 24 October 2026
- Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 24 October 2026
- TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Sunday 25 October 2026
FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: questions and answers
When is FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 8.
Where is FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund played?
At Allianz Arena, Munich, FC Bayern München's home ground.
Who will win FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
FC Bayern München are the favourites: FC Bayern München 55%, draw 23%, Borussia Dortmund 22%. Our prediction is FC Bayern München 2-1 Borussia Dortmund.
Who is the player to watch in FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 89 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.