Fiorentina vs Juventus Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 11
Serie A · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze · updated 2026-10-25
Fiorentina welcome Juventus to Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze in Serie A Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Fiorentina have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate. Juventus have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 43% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Juventus are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 26% and Fiorentina at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.16, Juventus 1.57.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Fiorentina: form and key numbers
In style Fiorentina press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.67 a match created, 1.49 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.7).
- Shots: 16.6 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 46.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Juventus: form and key numbers
In style Juventus keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created, 0.59 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.9).
- Shots: 17.0 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 58.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Fiorentina vs Juventus: season averages side by side
| Fiorentina | Per match this season | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 2.4 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.55 |
| 1.49 | xG conceded | 0.59 |
| 16.6 | Shots | 17.0 |
| 5.4 | On target | 5.9 |
| 46.7 | Possession % | 58.6 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 43% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 8.1 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.68 | Average rating | 6.92 |
Players to watch
Fiorentina
- Nicolò Fagioli CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 61 · Dribbler, Ball circulator (top 6% of his position)
- Alieu Njie WMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 52 · Chance creator, Creator (top 10% of his position)
Juventus
- Douglas Luiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 4% of his position)
- Zeki Çelik RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Franco Mastantuono
Franco Mastantuono, 19 · Fiorentina · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 70
Franco Mastantuono, 19, plays as a winger for Fiorentina in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and fouls won. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 70
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 65
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.53 / 90 | 98% |
| Fouls won | 2.51 / 90 | 90% |
| Expected goals | 0.40 / 90 | 86% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.68 / 90 | 85% |
| Key passes | 2.18 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Franco Mastantuono is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Franco Mastantuono's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Fiorentina vs Juventus prediction
Juventus should have more of the ball, with Fiorentina likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Fiorentina like to take players on; Juventus work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.16 for Fiorentina and 1.57 for Juventus - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Juventus have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Fiorentina 1-2 Juventus
Fiorentina vs Juventus betting tips
- Tip 1: Juventus win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.73 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
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- Sassuolo vs Lazio Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Roma vs Cagliari Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Venezia vs Inter Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Parma vs Udinese Wednesday 28 October 2026
- AC Milan vs Bologna Wednesday 28 October 2026
Fiorentina vs Juventus: questions and answers
When is Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Fiorentina vs Juventus is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 11.
Where is Fiorentina vs Juventus played?
At Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze, Fiorentina's home ground.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Juventus are the favourites: Fiorentina 27%, draw 26%, Juventus 46%. Our prediction is Fiorentina 1-2 Juventus.
Who is the player to watch in Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Franco Mastantuono of Fiorentina: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.