Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 11
Serie A · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova · updated 2026-10-25
Genoa welcome AC Milan to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova in Serie A Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Genoa have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. AC Milan have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, AC Milan are narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 26% and Genoa at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Genoa 0.95, AC Milan 1.62.
- Over 2.5 goals: 47% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Genoa: form and key numbers
In style Genoa are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.92 a match created, 1.31 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 11.1 a match, 2.9 on target.
- Possession: 44.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
AC Milan: form and key numbers
In style AC Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.68 a match created, 1.11 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.2).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 59.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Genoa vs AC Milan: season averages side by side
| Genoa | Per match this season | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 0.92 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.68 |
| 1.31 | xG conceded | 1.11 |
| 11.1 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 2.9 | On target | 4.7 |
| 44.3 | Possession % | 59.7 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 57% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
Genoa
- Leo Østigård CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Blocks shots, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Morten Frendrup DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 56 · Reads the game, Disciplined (top 5% of his position)
AC Milan
- Pervis Estupiñán LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Hard to dribble past, Secure passer (top 4% of his position)
- Diego Moreira LMF · Direct wide midfielder · Moneyball Score 58 · Dribbler, Crosser (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Luka Modrić
Luka Modrić, 41 · AC Milan · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 70
Luka Modrić, 41, plays as a central midfielder for AC Milan in Serie A. Strongest for his role in long balls and passes. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 70
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 65
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 53
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Long balls | 6.06 / 90 | 99% |
| Passes | 84.78 / 90 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 90% |
| Interceptions | 1.67 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.21 / 90 | 83% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Long passer, Ball circulator, Secure passer.
- What Luka Modrić is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Luka Modrić's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Genoa vs AC Milan prediction
AC Milan should have more of the ball, with Genoa likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; AC Milan work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 0.95 for Genoa and 1.62 for AC Milan - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 50%. AC Milan have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Genoa 1-2 AC Milan
Genoa vs AC Milan betting tips
- Tip 1: AC Milan win or draw (double chance) 79% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 53% by the model, 2.57 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Lecce vs Juventus Sunday 25 October 2026
- Udinese vs AC Milan Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs Lazio Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Roma vs Cagliari Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Venezia vs Inter Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Parma vs Udinese Wednesday 28 October 2026
- AC Milan vs Bologna Wednesday 28 October 2026
Genoa vs AC Milan: questions and answers
When is Genoa vs AC Milan?
Genoa vs AC Milan is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 11.
Where is Genoa vs AC Milan played?
At Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova, Genoa's home ground.
Who will win Genoa vs AC Milan?
AC Milan are the favourites: Genoa 21%, draw 26%, AC Milan 52%. Our prediction is Genoa 1-2 AC Milan.
Who is the player to watch in Genoa vs AC Milan?
Luka Modrić of AC Milan: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Genoa vs AC Milan?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.