Hamburger SV vs FC Bayern München Prediction and Stats | Bundesliga Gameweek 11
Bundesliga · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Volksparkstadion, Hamburg · updated 2026-11-14
Hamburger SV welcome FC Bayern München to Volksparkstadion in Hamburg in Bundesliga Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
Hamburger SV have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 44% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 75% win rate. FC Bayern München have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Bayern München are clear favourites at 75%, with the draw at 15% and Hamburger SV at 10%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Hamburger SV 0.96, FC Bayern München 2.78.
- Over 2.5 goals: 72% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Hamburger SV: form and key numbers
In style Hamburger SV are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.94 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 42.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
FC Bayern München: form and key numbers
In style FC Bayern München keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 3.03 a match created, 0.88 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.8).
- Shots: 23.6 a match, 9.4 on target.
- Possession: 66.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 78% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.17.
Hamburger SV vs FC Bayern München: season averages side by side
| Hamburger SV | Per match this season | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 3.2 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.03 |
| 1.94 | xG conceded | 0.88 |
| 11.7 | Shots | 23.6 |
| 3.9 | On target | 9.4 |
| 42.8 | Possession % | 66.1 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 22% |
| 44% | Both teams scored % | 78% |
| 4.1 | Corners | 8.6 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 7.17 |
Players to watch
Hamburger SV
- Miro Muheim LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Chance creator, Creator (top 3% of his position)
- Yussuf Poulsen CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 56 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
FC Bayern München
- Ismael Saibari AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 69 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 1% of his position)
- Harry Kane CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69 · Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 92
Michael Olise, 24, plays as a winger for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 92
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 88
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 84
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 4.46 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.53 / 90 | 99% |
| Shots | 4.82 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 0.84 / 90 | 97% |
| Fouls won | 2.17 / 90 | 97% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, High shot volume.
- What Michael Olise is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Olise's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Hamburger SV vs FC Bayern München prediction
FC Bayern München should have more of the ball, with Hamburger SV likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Hamburger SV are a threat in the air and from set pieces; FC Bayern München like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 0.96 for Hamburger SV and 2.78 for FC Bayern München - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 58%. FC Bayern München have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Hamburger SV 1-3 FC Bayern München
Hamburger SV vs FC Bayern München: what the numbers say
- 1. FC Bayern München win, the likeliest result 75% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 4 or more goals 52% by the model, 3.75 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 12.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Hamburger SV vs FC Bayern München: questions and answers
When is Hamburger SV vs FC Bayern München?
Hamburger SV vs FC Bayern München is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 11.
Where is Hamburger SV vs FC Bayern München played?
At Volksparkstadion, Hamburg, Hamburger SV's home ground.
Who will win Hamburger SV vs FC Bayern München?
FC Bayern München are the favourites: Hamburger SV 10%, draw 15%, FC Bayern München 75%. Our prediction is Hamburger SV 1-3 FC Bayern München.
Who is the player to watch in Hamburger SV vs FC Bayern München?
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 92 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Hamburger SV vs FC Bayern München?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.