Lorient vs AS Monaco Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 7
Ligue 1 · Sunday 18 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-17
Lorient welcome AS Monaco to Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir in Lorient in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 18 October 2026.
Lorient have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. AS Monaco have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, AS Monaco are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 29% and Lorient at 27%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lorient +0.25 at 2.13, AS Monaco at 1.78. The main goals line is 2.5: over 2.03, under 1.85, which gives over 48%.
Lorient: form and key numbers
In style Lorient are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.07 a match created, 1.33 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.4).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 46.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
AS Monaco: form and key numbers
In style AS Monaco take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.20 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Lorient vs AS Monaco: season averages side by side
| Lorient | Per match | AS Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| 1.07 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.20 |
| 1.33 | xG conceded | 1.47 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 1.67 |
| 10.0 | Shots | 11.2 |
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 4.5 |
| 1.7 | Big chances missed | 1.7 |
| 37.9 | Pressure share % | 46.4 |
| 14.8 | Tackles | 22.5 |
| 9.2 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Lorient vs AS Monaco: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Lorient have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 0 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Lorient 6, AS Monaco 2 - 4.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished AS Monaco 1-3 Lorient (January 16th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Lorient won 2, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2026 | AS Monaco | 1 – 3 | Lorient |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Lorient | 3 – 1 | AS Monaco |
Players to watch
Lorient
- Arthur Avom CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 65 · Reads the game, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
- Nathaniel Adjei CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 6% of his position)
AS Monaco
- Vanderson RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 77 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 4% of his position)
- Lamine Camara CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 64 · Ball-winner, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Paris Brunner
Paris Brunner, 20 · Monaco · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 62
Paris Brunner, 20, plays as a centre-forward for Monaco in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in goals and shots on target. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.92 / 90 | 83% |
| Shots on target | 56% | 81% |
| Shots | 3.68 / 90 | 75% |
| Expected goals | 0.58 / 90 | 69% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 xG/shot | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, Accurate shooter.
- What Paris Brunner is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Paris Brunner's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lorient vs AS Monaco prediction
AS Monaco should have more of the ball; Lorient are a threat in the air and from set pieces; AS Monaco like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.16 for Lorient and 1.16 for AS Monaco - with over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams scoring at 48%. AS Monaco have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Lorient 0-1 AS Monaco
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lorient vs AS Monaco betting tips
- Tip 1: AS Monaco win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 2.31 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 6.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Lorient vs AS Monaco in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Lorient vs AS Monaco: questions and answers
When is Lorient vs AS Monaco?
Lorient vs AS Monaco is on Sunday 18 October 2026, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7.
Where is Lorient vs AS Monaco played?
At Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Lorient, Lorient's home ground.
Who will win Lorient vs AS Monaco?
AS Monaco are the favourites: Lorient 27%, draw 29%, AS Monaco 44%. Our prediction is Lorient 0-1 AS Monaco.
Who is the player to watch in Lorient vs AS Monaco?
Paris Brunner of Monaco: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs AS Monaco?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Tags
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