Le Havre vs Auxerre: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Ligue 1 · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Stade Océane, Le Havre · updated 2026-10-09
Le Havre host Auxerre in Ligue 1 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Stade Océane. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Le Havre favourites at 49%, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.2 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Le Havre 1.87, Auxerre 1.34.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Ally Samatta
Ally Samatta, 33 · Le Havre · CF · Target man
Moneyball Scout picks Ally Samatta as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 56 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 31, defensive 61).
- Big chances missed: 0.00 per 90 minutes, better than 96% of centre-forwards
- Shots: 4.19 per 90 minutes, better than 91% of centre-forwards
- Aerial duels won: 3.98 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of centre-forwards
Auxerre concede 2.4 goals a match this season (1.89 expected), more than the league's average: the space a target man like Ally Samatta lives on.
Scout's notes: Rarely wastes a big chance, High shot volume, Dominant in the air.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Le Havre | Per match this season | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 2.4 |
| 1.70 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 |
| 1.75 | xG conceded | 1.89 |
| 15.4 | Shots | 12.0 |
| 5.0 | On target | 5.0 |
| 48.4 | Possession % | 45.0 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.85 | Average rating | 6.67 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Le Havre
- Lionel Mpasi-Nzau goalkeeper · rating 7.58 · 3 apps
- Ally Samatta forward · rating 7.28 · 5 apps
- Djibril Ouziad midfielder · rating 7.03 · 4 apps
Auxerre
- Danny Namaso forward · rating 7.18 · 5 apps
- Kévin Danois midfielder · rating 7.07 · 5 apps
- Cameron Archer forward · rating 6.92 · 3 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais Friday 9 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Saturday 10 October 2026
- Monaco vs Toulouse Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.