Troyes vs Lens: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Ligue 1 · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas, Troyes · updated 2026-10-09
Troyes host Lens in Ligue 1 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Lens slight favourites at 44%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 23% and expects about 3.5 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Troyes 1.61, Lens 1.89.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger
Moneyball Scout picks Florian Thauvin as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 76, defensive 33).
- Accurate crosses: 2.60 per 90 minutes, better than 98% of wingers
- Expected goals: 0.68 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of wingers
- Expected assists (est.): 0.46 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of wingers
Troyes concede 2.2 goals a match this season (1.76 expected), more than the league's average: the space a creative winger like Florian Thauvin lives on.
Scout's notes: Crosser, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Troyes | Per match this season | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.08 |
| 1.76 | xG conceded | 1.92 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 2.8 | On target | 6.4 |
| 39.2 | Possession % | 51.2 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 7.6 | Corners | 7.0 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Troyes
- Adrien Monfray defender · rating 7.10 · 5 apps
- Antoine Mille midfielder · rating 6.99 · 5 apps
- Jérémy Le Douaron forward · rating 6.97 · 3 apps
Lens
- Florian Thauvin forward · rating 7.72 · 5 apps
- Ismaëlo Ganiou defender · rating 7.21 · 3 apps
- Matthieu Udol defender · rating 7.03 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais Friday 9 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Saturday 10 October 2026
- Monaco vs Toulouse Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.