Lorient vs Brest Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 9
Ligue 1 · Monday 2 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Lorient · updated 2026-10-28
Lorient welcome Brest to Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir in Lorient in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 action on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Lorient have played 8 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate. Brest have played 8 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Lorient 36%, the draw 29%, Brest 35%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lorient 1.21, Brest 1.19.
- Over 2.5 goals: 43% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lorient: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.13 a match created, 1.15 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.0).
- Shots: 9.9 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 46.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 63% of matches (40% at home).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Brest: form and key numbers
In style Brest play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.94 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 17.0 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 46.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 88% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Lorient vs Brest: season averages side by side
| Lorient | Per match this season | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 8 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.13 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.94 |
| 1.15 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 9.9 | Shots | 17.0 |
| 3.1 | On target | 5.9 |
| 46.8 | Possession % | 46.4 |
| 63% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 38% | Both teams scored % | 88% |
| 3.1 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.1 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.85 |
Players to watch
Lorient
- Montassar Talbi CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 54 · Disciplined, Dominant in the air (top 8% of his position)
- Yvon Mvogo GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 54 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 41% of his position)
Brest
- Bradley Locko LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 9% of his position)
- Raphaël Le Guen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 62 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Arthur Avom
Arthur Avom, 21 · Lorient · CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 72
Arthur Avom, 21, plays as a central midfielder for Lorient in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in interceptions and long balls. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 72
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 2.13 / 90 | 96% |
| Long balls | 3.91 / 90 | 92% |
| Passes | 74.17 / 90 | 90% |
| Tackles | 3.20 / 90 | 89% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.23 / 90 | 82% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★½ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Reads the game, Long passer, Ball circulator.
- What Arthur Avom is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Arthur Avom's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lorient vs Brest prediction
Lorient should have more of the ball; Brest are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.21 for Lorient and 1.19 for Brest - with over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 50%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lorient 1-1 Brest
Lorient vs Brest betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 36%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.40 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Lorient vs Brest: questions and answers
When is Lorient vs Brest?
Lorient vs Brest is on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9.
Where is Lorient vs Brest played?
At Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Lorient, Lorient's home ground.
Who will win Lorient vs Brest?
It is close: Lorient 36%, draw 29%, Brest 35%. Our prediction is Lorient 1-1 Brest.
Who is the player to watch in Lorient vs Brest?
Arthur Avom of Lorient: a ball-winning midfielder with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Brest?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.