Málaga vs Athletic Club Prediction and Stats | La Liga Gameweek 14
La Liga · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga · updated 2026-11-14
Málaga welcome Athletic Club to Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga in La Liga Gameweek 14 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC.
Málaga have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate. Athletic Club have played 11 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 36% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Athletic Club are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 26% and Málaga at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Málaga 0.95, Athletic Club 1.67.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 51%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Málaga: form and key numbers
In style Málaga take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.79 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.7).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 49.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Athletic Club: form and key numbers
In style Athletic Club keep the ball, press high, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 14.9 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 54.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 45% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Málaga vs Athletic Club: season averages side by side
| Málaga | Per match this season | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 11 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.79 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 14.9 |
| 3.6 | On target | 4.1 |
| 49.8 | Possession % | 54.6 |
| 8% | Clean sheets % | 45% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 45% |
| 5.1 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.71 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Málaga
- Adrián Niño Heredia CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 60 · High shot volume, Accurate shooter (top 8% of his position)
- Ramón Enríquez CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 59 · Press-resistant, Ball circulator (top 4% of his position)
Athletic Club
- Álex Berenguer LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 68 · Gets into scoring positions, Creator (top 5% of his position)
- Yuri Berchiche LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Secure passer, Ball circulator (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Nico Williams
Nico Williams, 24 · Athletic Club · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 69
Nico Williams, 24, plays as a winger for Athletic Club in La Liga. Strongest for his role in expected goals and dispossessed. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 69
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 65
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 41
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.39 / 90 | 89% |
| Dispossessed | 0.73 / 90 | 83% |
| Shots | 3.07 / 90 | 80% |
| Key passes | 1.90 / 90 | 70% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.88 / 90 | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Press-resistant, High shot volume.
- What Nico Williams is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Nico Williams's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Málaga vs Athletic Club prediction
Athletic Club should have more of the ball, with Málaga likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Málaga like to take players on; Athletic Club press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 0.95 for Málaga and 1.67 for Athletic Club - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 51%. Athletic Club have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Málaga 1-2 Athletic Club
Málaga vs Athletic Club: what the numbers say
- 1. Athletic Club unbeaten (win or draw) 79% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.62 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.4 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 10.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More La Liga previews
- Athletic Club vs Espanyol Friday 20 November 2026
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- Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sevilla vs Real Betis Saturday 21 November 2026
- Real Madrid vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Villarreal Sunday 22 November 2026
- Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad Sunday 22 November 2026
- Osasuna vs Málaga Sunday 22 November 2026
Málaga vs Athletic Club: questions and answers
When is Málaga vs Athletic Club?
Málaga vs Athletic Club is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 14.
Where is Málaga vs Athletic Club played?
At Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga, Málaga's home ground.
Who will win Málaga vs Athletic Club?
Athletic Club are the favourites: Málaga 21%, draw 26%, Athletic Club 54%. Our prediction is Málaga 1-2 Athletic Club.
Who is the player to watch in Málaga vs Athletic Club?
Nico Williams of Athletic Club: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Málaga vs Athletic Club?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.