Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Champions League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Manchester City host Paris Saint Germain in the UEFA Champions League on Thursday 15 October 2026. The bookmakers make Manchester City narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 24% and Paris Saint Germain at 31%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Manchester City -0.25 at 1.89, Paris Saint Germain at 1.99. The main goals line is 3.5: over 2.04, under 1.83, which gives over 47%.
Form in numbers
- Paris Saint Germain create more: 2.13 expected goals a match against 2.00 for Manchester City.
- Paris Saint Germain give away less, 1.02 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Manchester City 13.6 (5.4 on target), Paris Saint Germain 21.2 (7.2 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Manchester City 65.4%, Paris Saint Germain 76.7%.
| Manchester City | Per match | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.13 |
| 1.11 | xG conceded | 1.02 |
| 2.60 | Goals | 1.60 |
| 13.6 | Shots | 21.2 |
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 7.2 |
| 2.2 | Big chances missed | 3.6 |
| 65.4 | Pressure share % | 76.7 |
| 12.2 | Tackles | 16.0 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 6.4 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Manchester City won 4, drew 0 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2025 | Paris Saint Germain | 4 – 2 | Manchester City |
| 24 Nov 2021 | Manchester City | 2 – 1 | Paris Saint Germain |
| 28 Sep 2021 | Paris Saint Germain | 2 – 0 | Manchester City |
| 4 May 2021 | Manchester City | 2 – 0 | Paris Saint Germain |
| 28 Apr 2021 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 – 2 | Manchester City |
| 12 Apr 2016 | Manchester City | 1 – 0 | Paris Saint Germain |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.