Manchester United vs Aston Villa Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 10
Premier League · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Old Trafford, Manchester · updated 2026-10-25
Manchester United welcome Aston Villa to Old Trafford in Manchester in Premier League Gameweek 10 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
Manchester United have played 7 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Aston Villa have played 8 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 38% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Manchester United are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 24% and Aston Villa at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Manchester United 1.80, Aston Villa 1.05.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Manchester United: form and key numbers
In style Manchester United keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.71 a match created, 1.17 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.0).
- Shots: 19.7 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 55.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Aston Villa: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.13 a match created, 1.68 conceded (goals minus xG: 0.0).
- Shots: 11.4 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa: season averages side by side
| Manchester United | Per match this season | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.71 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.13 |
| 1.17 | xG conceded | 1.68 |
| 19.7 | Shots | 11.4 |
| 5.0 | On target | 3.0 |
| 55.6 | Possession % | 46.1 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.1 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.71 |
Players to watch
Manchester United
- Youri Tielemans CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 73 · Ball circulator, Press-resistant (top 10% of his position)
- Kobbie Mainoo CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 70 · Dribbler, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Aston Villa
- Johan Manzambi AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 70 · High shot volume, Press-resistant (top 4% of his position)
- Zion Suzuki GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 69 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcus Rashford
Marcus Rashford, 28 · Manchester United · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 71
Marcus Rashford, 28, plays as a winger for Manchester United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in dispossessed and key passes. Weakest in big chances created. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 71
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 68
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dispossessed | 0.25 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 3.30 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 3.30 / 90 | 85% |
| Fouls won | 2.03 / 90 | 76% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.03 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Press-resistant, Chance creator, High shot volume.
- What Marcus Rashford is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcus Rashford's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction
Manchester United should have more of the ball, with Aston Villa likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Manchester United work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.80 for Manchester United and 1.05 for Aston Villa - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 55%. Manchester United have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Aston Villa
Manchester United vs Aston Villa betting tips
- Tip 1: Manchester United win or draw (double chance) 79% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.85 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 31 October 2026
- AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United Saturday 31 October 2026
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Manchester United vs Aston Villa: questions and answers
When is Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Manchester United vs Aston Villa is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 10.
Where is Manchester United vs Aston Villa played?
At Old Trafford, Manchester, Manchester United's home ground.
Who will win Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Manchester United are the favourites: Manchester United 54%, draw 24%, Aston Villa 21%. Our prediction is Manchester United 2-1 Aston Villa.
Who is the player to watch in Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Marcus Rashford of Manchester United: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.