AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 9
Premier League · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth · updated 2026-10-17
AFC Bournemouth welcome Leeds United to Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth in Premier League Gameweek 9 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
AFC Bournemouth have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Leeds United have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: AFC Bournemouth 35%, the draw 27%, Leeds United 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.32, Leeds United 1.37.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
AFC Bournemouth: form and key numbers
In style AFC Bournemouth play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 1.20 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Leeds United: form and key numbers
In style Leeds United are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created, 1.51 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.0).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 44.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United: season averages side by side
| AFC Bournemouth | Per match this season | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.44 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 |
| 1.20 | xG conceded | 1.51 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 12.0 |
| 5.0 | On target | 3.8 |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 44.5 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 3.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Players to watch
AFC Bournemouth
- Adrien Truffert LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 73 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
- James Hill CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 66 · Long passer, Duel winner (top 7% of his position)
Leeds United
- James Trafford GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 72 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 15% of his position)
- Tarik Muharemović CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 68 · Box defender, Reads the game (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 29 · Leeds United · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 62
Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Leeds United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and shots on target. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 5.11 / 90 | 98% |
| Shots on target | 73% | 97% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.22 xG/shot | 92% |
| Duels won | 6.69 / 90 | 88% |
| Goals | 0.53 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots.
- What Dominic Calvert-Lewin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Dominic Calvert-Lewin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United prediction
AFC Bournemouth should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.32 for AFC Bournemouth and 1.37 for Leeds United - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Leeds United
AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.70 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Manchester United vs AFC Bournemouth Sunday 25 October 2026
- Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 25 October 2026
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AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United: questions and answers
When is AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United?
AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 9.
Where is AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United played?
At Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, AFC Bournemouth's home ground.
Who will win AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United?
It is close: AFC Bournemouth 35%, draw 27%, Leeds United 37%. Our prediction is AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Leeds United.
Who is the player to watch in AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United?
Dominic Calvert-Lewin of Leeds United: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.