Monza vs Atalanta Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 11
Serie A · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 14:00 UTC · U-Power Stadium, Monza · updated 2026-10-25
Monza welcome Atalanta to U-Power Stadium in Monza in Serie A Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Monza have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Atalanta have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 43% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Monza are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 23% and Atalanta at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Monza 1.98, Atalanta 1.42.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Monza: form and key numbers
In style Monza are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.46 a match created, 1.44 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.3).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 45.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 88% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Atalanta: form and key numbers
In style Atalanta are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created, 1.99 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.2).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 45.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Monza vs Atalanta: season averages side by side
| Monza | Per match this season | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.46 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.11 |
| 1.44 | xG conceded | 1.99 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 13.3 |
| 5.6 | On target | 4.6 |
| 45.1 | Possession % | 45.7 |
| 13% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 88% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 0.9 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Monza
- Andrea Colpani AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 60 · Gets into scoring positions, Through-ball threat (top 25% of his position)
- Lorenzo Lucchesi CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Atalanta
- Marco Carnesecchi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 10% of his position)
- Raoul Bellanova RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Creator, Secure passer (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jonathan Rowe
Jonathan Rowe, 23 · Atalanta · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 61
Jonathan Rowe, 23, plays as a winger for Atalanta in Serie A. Strongest for his role in fouls won and big chances created. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 61
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 58
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 37
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.20 / 90 | 93% |
| Big chances created | 0.58 / 90 | 83% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 76% |
| Shots | 2.62 / 90 | 66% |
| Key passes | 1.75 / 90 | 59% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Big-chance creator.
- What Jonathan Rowe is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jonathan Rowe's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Monza vs Atalanta prediction
Atalanta should have more of the ball; Monza work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.98 for Monza and 1.42 for Atalanta - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 66%. Monza have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Monza 2-1 Atalanta
Monza vs Atalanta betting tips
- Tip 1: Monza win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.40 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Sassuolo vs Lazio Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Roma vs Cagliari Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Venezia vs Inter Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Parma vs Udinese Wednesday 28 October 2026
- AC Milan vs Bologna Wednesday 28 October 2026
Monza vs Atalanta: questions and answers
When is Monza vs Atalanta?
Monza vs Atalanta is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 11.
Where is Monza vs Atalanta played?
At U-Power Stadium, Monza, Monza's home ground.
Who will win Monza vs Atalanta?
Monza are the favourites: Monza 50%, draw 23%, Atalanta 27%. Our prediction is Monza 2-1 Atalanta.
Who is the player to watch in Monza vs Atalanta?
Jonathan Rowe of Atalanta: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Monza vs Atalanta?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.