Napoli vs Lazio Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 11
Serie A · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli · updated 2026-10-25
Napoli welcome Lazio to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli in Serie A Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 11:30 UTC.
Napoli have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate. Lazio have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 88% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 57% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Napoli 37%, the draw 27%, Lazio 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Napoli 1.41, Lazio 1.41.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Napoli: form and key numbers
In style Napoli create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.91 a match created, 1.49 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 16.5 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 51.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Lazio: form and key numbers
In style Lazio press high.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 1.31 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.5).
- Shots: 13.9 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 50.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Napoli vs Lazio: season averages side by side
| Napoli | Per match this season | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 0.6 |
| 1.91 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 |
| 1.49 | xG conceded | 1.31 |
| 16.5 | Shots | 13.9 |
| 6.0 | On target | 4.3 |
| 51.3 | Possession % | 50.9 |
| 38% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.9 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 0.9 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.97 |
Players to watch
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
- Kevin De Bruyne AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 68 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
Lazio
- Christos Mandas GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 72 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 23% of his position)
- Nuno Tavares LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Crosser, Dribbler (top 19% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mattia Zaccagni
Mattia Zaccagni, 31 · Lazio · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 69
Mattia Zaccagni, 31, plays as a winger for Lazio in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and big chances created. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.30 / 90 | 88% |
| Big chances created | 0.51 / 90 | 87% |
| Key passes | 2.31 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected goals | 0.31 / 90 | 80% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.03 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Creator, Big-chance creator, Chance creator.
- What Mattia Zaccagni is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mattia Zaccagni's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Napoli vs Lazio prediction
Napoli should have more of the ball; Lazio press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.41 for Napoli and 1.41 for Lazio - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 58%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Napoli 1-1 Lazio
Napoli vs Lazio betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.82 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Lecce vs Juventus Sunday 25 October 2026
- Udinese vs AC Milan Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs Lazio Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Roma vs Cagliari Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Venezia vs Inter Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Parma vs Udinese Wednesday 28 October 2026
- AC Milan vs Bologna Wednesday 28 October 2026
Napoli vs Lazio: questions and answers
When is Napoli vs Lazio?
Napoli vs Lazio is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 11:30 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 11.
Where is Napoli vs Lazio played?
At Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli, Napoli's home ground.
Who will win Napoli vs Lazio?
It is close: Napoli 37%, draw 27%, Lazio 37%. Our prediction is Napoli 1-1 Lazio.
Who is the player to watch in Napoli vs Lazio?
Mattia Zaccagni of Lazio: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Lazio?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.