Paderborn vs Schalke 04 Prediction and Stats | Bundesliga Gameweek 11
Bundesliga · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn · updated 2026-11-14
Paderborn welcome Schalke 04 to Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn in Bundesliga Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
Paderborn have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 22% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. Schalke 04 have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 11% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Paderborn are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 30% and Schalke 04 at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Paderborn 1.31, Schalke 04 0.87.
- Over 2.5 goals: 37% · both teams to score: 43%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Paderborn: form and key numbers
In style Paderborn play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 1.55 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.3).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 49.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Schalke 04: form and key numbers
In style Schalke 04 are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.12 a match created, 1.91 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.1).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 41.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Paderborn vs Schalke 04: season averages side by side
| Paderborn | Per match this season | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 0.6 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.12 |
| 1.55 | xG conceded | 1.91 |
| 13.6 | Shots | 11.0 |
| 3.4 | On target | 3.2 |
| 49.8 | Possession % | 41.0 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.80 |
Players to watch
Paderborn
- Nahuel Noll GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 73 · Long passer, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
- Tjark Scheller CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 64 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 10% of his position)
Schalke 04
- Loris Karius GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Nikola Katic CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Junior Adamu
Junior Adamu, 25 · Schalke 04 · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 67
Junior Adamu, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in duels won and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 67
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 61
- RW · Winger Competent, 19
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 7.03 / 90 | 85% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 84% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.63 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots on target | 55% | 76% |
| Expected goals | 0.52 / 90 | 71% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air.
- What Junior Adamu is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Junior Adamu's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Paderborn vs Schalke 04 prediction
Paderborn should have more of the ball, with Schalke 04 likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals - 1.31 for Paderborn and 0.87 for Schalke 04 - with over 2.5 goals at 37% and both teams scoring at 43%. Paderborn have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Paderborn 2-0 Schalke 04
Paderborn vs Schalke 04: what the numbers say
- 1. Paderborn unbeaten (win or draw) 76% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 63% by the model, 2.18 goals expected
- 3. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 corners or fewer 7.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Paderborn vs Schalke 04: questions and answers
When is Paderborn vs Schalke 04?
Paderborn vs Schalke 04 is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 11.
Where is Paderborn vs Schalke 04 played?
At Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn, Paderborn's home ground.
Who will win Paderborn vs Schalke 04?
Paderborn are the favourites: Paderborn 46%, draw 30%, Schalke 04 24%. Our prediction is Paderborn 2-0 Schalke 04.
Who is the player to watch in Paderborn vs Schalke 04?
Junior Adamu of Schalke 04: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Paderborn vs Schalke 04?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 37%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.