Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 11
La Liga · Saturday 31 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Rayo Vallecano welcome Celta Vigo to Estadio de Vallecas in Madrid in La Liga Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 31 October 2026.
Rayo Vallecano have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 22% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Celta Vigo have played 10 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Rayo Vallecano 40%, the draw 29%, Celta Vigo 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Rayo Vallecano -0.25 at 2.05, Celta Vigo at 1.85. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.86, under 2.02, which gives over 52%.
Rayo Vallecano: form and key numbers
In style Rayo Vallecano keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 1.87 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 51.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 89% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Celta Vigo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.89 a match created, 1.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 9.7 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 49.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (60% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo: season averages side by side
| Rayo Vallecano | Per match | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| 1.39 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.89 |
| 1.87 | xG conceded | 1.25 |
| 1.33 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 9.7 |
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 1.0 |
| 50.4 | Pressure share % | 43.9 |
| 16.3 | Tackles | 14.4 |
| 13.1 | Fouls | 11.9 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 9 and 10 measured matches.
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Rayo Vallecano have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Rayo Vallecano 5, Celta Vigo 6 - 2.8 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Celta Vigo 3-0 Rayo Vallecano (January 18th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Rayo Vallecano won 2, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Celta Vigo | 3 – 0 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 – 1 | Celta Vigo |
| 18 May 2025 | Celta Vigo | 1 – 2 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 10 Jan 2025 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 – 1 | Celta Vigo |
Players to watch
Rayo Vallecano
- Unai López CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 74 · Chance creator, Long passer (top 3% of his position)
- Florian Lejeune CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 58 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 13% of his position)
Celta Vigo
- Hugo González RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 76 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
- Ionuț Radu GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 61 · Box defender, Secure passer (top 15% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello, 25 · Rayo Vallecano · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 63
Sergio Camello, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Rayo Vallecano in La Liga. Strongest for his role in goals and shots on target. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 63
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.04 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots on target | 52% | 76% |
| Shots | 3.42 / 90 | 76% |
| Expected goals | 0.50 / 90 | 69% |
| Key passes | 1.19 / 90 | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher.
⚠ 7 goals from only 3.4 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Sergio Camello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sergio Camello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo prediction
Rayo Vallecano should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.16 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.25 for Celta Vigo - with over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 50%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Celta Vigo
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.41 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo in the Match Centre Follow it live
More La Liga previews
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- Villarreal vs RCD Espanyol Saturday 31 October 2026
- Levante vs Atletico Madrid Saturday 31 October 2026
- Real Betis vs Malaga CF Sunday 1 November 2026
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo: questions and answers
When is Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo is on Saturday 31 October 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 11.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo played?
At Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid, Rayo Vallecano's home ground.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
It is close: Rayo Vallecano 40%, draw 29%, Celta Vigo 31%. Our prediction is Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Celta Vigo.
Who is the player to watch in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Sergio Camello of Rayo Vallecano: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Tags
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