Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction and Stats | La Liga Gameweek 14
La Liga · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla, Sevilla · updated 2026-11-14
Real Betis welcome Rayo Vallecano to Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla in Sevilla in La Liga Gameweek 14 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Real Betis have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 63% win rate. Rayo Vallecano have played 11 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Real Betis are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 22% and Rayo Vallecano at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Real Betis 2.13, Rayo Vallecano 1.20.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Real Betis: form and key numbers
In style Real Betis keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created, 1.51 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 17.1 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Rayo Vallecano: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created, 1.77 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 51.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano: season averages side by side
| Real Betis | Per match this season | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 |
| 1.51 | xG conceded | 1.77 |
| 17.1 | Shots | 14.4 |
| 6.2 | On target | 4.8 |
| 52.3 | Possession % | 51.7 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 9% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 73% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.97 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Players to watch
Real Betis
- Álvaro Valles GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 76 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 10% of his position)
- Pablo Fornals CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 70 · Chance creator, Creator (top 3% of his position)
Rayo Vallecano
- Unai López CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Long passer, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
- Sergio Camello CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 57 · Accurate shooter, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 15% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Isco
Isco, 34 · Real Betis · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 83
Isco, 34, plays as an attacking midfielder for Real Betis in La Liga. Strongest for his role in expected goals and key passes. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 83
- CM · Central midfielder Accomplished, 74
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.50 / 90 | 100% |
| Key passes | 3.96 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.32 / 90 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 94% |
| Big chances created | 0.15 / 90 | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator, Creator.
- What Isco is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano prediction
Real Betis should have more of the ball; Real Betis like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.13 for Real Betis and 1.20 for Rayo Vallecano - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 62%. Real Betis have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Real Betis 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano: what the numbers say
- 1. Real Betis win, the likeliest result 58% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 65% by the model, 3.33 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More La Liga previews
- Athletic Club vs Espanyol Friday 20 November 2026
- Deportivo Alavés vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 21 November 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sevilla vs Real Betis Saturday 21 November 2026
- Real Madrid vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Villarreal Sunday 22 November 2026
- Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad Sunday 22 November 2026
- Osasuna vs Málaga Sunday 22 November 2026
Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano: questions and answers
When is Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano?
Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 14.
Where is Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano played?
At Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla, Sevilla, Real Betis's home ground.
Who will win Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano?
Real Betis are the favourites: Real Betis 58%, draw 22%, Rayo Vallecano 20%. Our prediction is Real Betis 2-1 Rayo Vallecano.
Who is the player to watch in Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano?
Isco of Real Betis: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 83 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.