Real Sociedad vs Sevilla Prediction and Stats | La Liga Gameweek 14
La Liga · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastián · updated 2026-11-15
Real Sociedad welcome Sevilla to Anoeta Stadium in San Sebastián in La Liga Gameweek 14 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Real Sociedad have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 58% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 57% win rate. Sevilla have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 42% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 6 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Real Sociedad are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 25% and Sevilla at 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.70, Sevilla 1.43.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Real Sociedad: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.35 a match created, 1.73 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.8).
- Shots: 14.7 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 51.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Sevilla: form and key numbers
In style Sevilla are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.31 a match created, 1.37 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.3).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 44.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Real Sociedad vs Sevilla: season averages side by side
| Real Sociedad | Per match this season | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.35 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.31 |
| 1.73 | xG conceded | 1.37 |
| 14.7 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.4 |
| 51.2 | Possession % | 44.2 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 6.7 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.76 |
Players to watch
Real Sociedad
- Jon Martín Vicente CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
- Jon Gorrotxategi DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 63 · Reads the game, Blocks shots (top 11% of his position)
Sevilla
- Gabriel Suazo LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
- Kike Salas CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 53 · Long passer, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Orri Óskarsson
Orri Óskarsson, 22 · Real Sociedad · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 64
Orri Óskarsson, 22, plays as a centre-forward for Real Sociedad in La Liga. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 64
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 55
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.69 / 90 | 94% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.19 xG/shot | 92% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.67 / 90 | 92% |
| Shots | 3.63 / 90 | 82% |
| Aerial duels won | 1.97 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Takes high-quality shots, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring.
- What Orri Óskarsson is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Orri Óskarsson's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Real Sociedad vs Sevilla prediction
Real Sociedad should have more of the ball, with Sevilla likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Sevilla are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.70 for Real Sociedad and 1.43 for Sevilla - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 63%. Real Sociedad have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Real Sociedad 2-1 Sevilla
Real Sociedad vs Sevilla: what the numbers say
- 1. Real Sociedad unbeaten (win or draw) 68% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 60% by the model, 3.13 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 11.6 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More La Liga previews
- Athletic Club vs Espanyol Friday 20 November 2026
- Deportivo Alavés vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 21 November 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sevilla vs Real Betis Saturday 21 November 2026
- Real Madrid vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Villarreal Sunday 22 November 2026
- Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad Sunday 22 November 2026
- Osasuna vs Málaga Sunday 22 November 2026
Real Sociedad vs Sevilla: questions and answers
When is Real Sociedad vs Sevilla?
Real Sociedad vs Sevilla is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 14.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Sevilla played?
At Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastián, Real Sociedad's home ground.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Sevilla?
Real Sociedad are the favourites: Real Sociedad 44%, draw 25%, Sevilla 32%. Our prediction is Real Sociedad 2-1 Sevilla.
Who is the player to watch in Real Sociedad vs Sevilla?
Orri Óskarsson of Real Sociedad: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Real Sociedad vs Sevilla?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.