SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 7
Bundesliga · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau · updated 2026-10-11
SC Freiburg welcome FC Bayern München to Europa-Park Stadion in Freiburg im Breisgau in Bundesliga Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
SC Freiburg have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 4.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. FC Bayern München have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.2 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: SC Freiburg 38%, the draw 24%, FC Bayern München 38%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.70, FC Bayern München 1.71.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
SC Freiburg: form and key numbers
In style SC Freiburg keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.23 a match created, 0.99 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 19.0 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 53.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.07.
FC Bayern München: form and key numbers
In style FC Bayern München keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 3.07 a match created, 0.83 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 23.2 a match, 9.0 on target.
- Possession: 70.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.20.
SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München: season averages side by side
| SC Freiburg | Per match this season | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 5 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 3.2 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 2.23 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.07 |
| 0.99 | xG conceded | 0.83 |
| 19.0 | Shots | 23.2 |
| 6.5 | On target | 9.0 |
| 53.3 | Possession % | 70.4 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 9.4 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
| 7.07 | Average rating | 7.20 |
Players to watch
SC Freiburg
- Igor Matanovic CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 72 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
- Derry Scherhant LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 64 · High shot volume, Creator (top 12% of his position)
FC Bayern München
- Luis Díaz LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 62 · Gets into scoring positions, Dribbler (top 17% of his position)
- Harry Kane CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 62 · High shot volume, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 89
Michael Olise, 24, plays as a winger for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in key passes and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 89
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 85
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 81
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.66 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots | 5.04 / 90 | 97% |
| Accurate crosses | 2.06 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.44 / 90 | 95% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.44 / 90 | 94% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, High shot volume, Crosser.
- What Michael Olise is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Olise's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München prediction
FC Bayern München should have more of the ball; SC Freiburg are a threat in the air and from set pieces; FC Bayern München work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.70 for SC Freiburg and 1.71 for FC Bayern München - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 68%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: SC Freiburg 1-1 FC Bayern München
SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 38%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.41 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München: questions and answers
When is SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München?
SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 7.
Where is SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München played?
At Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau, SC Freiburg's home ground.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München?
It is close: SC Freiburg 38%, draw 24%, FC Bayern München 38%. Our prediction is SC Freiburg 1-1 FC Bayern München.
Who is the player to watch in SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München?
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 89 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.