SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Prediction and Stats | Bundesliga Gameweek 11
Bundesliga · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau · updated 2026-11-15
SC Freiburg welcome RB Leipzig to Europa-Park Stadion in Freiburg im Breisgau in Bundesliga Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
SC Freiburg have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate. RB Leipzig have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 17% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, SC Freiburg are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 23% and RB Leipzig at 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.86, RB Leipzig 1.61.
- Over 2.5 goals: 67% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
SC Freiburg: form and key numbers
In style SC Freiburg press high, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.87 a match created, 1.07 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 15.9 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 51.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
RB Leipzig: form and key numbers
In style RB Leipzig keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.37 a match created, 1.37 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.7).
- Shots: 17.2 a match, 6.9 on target.
- Possession: 55.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 56% of matches (20% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.04.
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig: season averages side by side
| SC Freiburg | Per match this season | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 2.2 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.87 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.37 |
| 1.07 | xG conceded | 1.37 |
| 15.9 | Shots | 17.2 |
| 5.2 | On target | 6.9 |
| 51.8 | Possession % | 55.1 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 56% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 0.9 |
| 6.90 | Average rating | 7.04 |
Players to watch
SC Freiburg
- Igor Matanovic CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 58 · Duel winner, High shot volume (top 14% of his position)
- Philipp Treu RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 53 · Hard to dribble past, Secure passer (top 4% of his position)
RB Leipzig
- Maarten Vandevoordt GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
- David Raum LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Chance creator, Creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa, 21 · RB Leipzig · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 84
Antonio Nusa, 21, plays as a winger for RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 84
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 81
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 50
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 1.24 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.51 / 90 | 96% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.03 / 90 | 94% |
| Key passes | 2.62 / 90 | 92% |
| Shots | 2.62 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Dribbler.
- What Antonio Nusa is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Antonio Nusa's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig prediction
RB Leipzig should have more of the ball; SC Freiburg are a threat in the air and from set pieces; RB Leipzig like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 1.86 for SC Freiburg and 1.61 for RB Leipzig - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 68%. SC Freiburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: SC Freiburg 2-1 RB Leipzig
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig: what the numbers say
- 1. SC Freiburg unbeaten (win or draw) 67% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 67% by the model, 3.47 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Bundesliga previews
- FC Bayern München vs FC Köln Friday 20 November 2026
- Elversberg vs SC Freiburg Saturday 21 November 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Saturday 21 November 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs TSG Hoffenheim Saturday 21 November 2026
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn Saturday 21 November 2026
- Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Sunday 22 November 2026
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig: questions and answers
When is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 11.
Where is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig played?
At Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau, SC Freiburg's home ground.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
SC Freiburg are the favourites: SC Freiburg 43%, draw 23%, RB Leipzig 33%. Our prediction is SC Freiburg 2-1 RB Leipzig.
Who is the player to watch in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Antonio Nusa of RB Leipzig: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 84 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.