Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Champions League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Shakhtar Donetsk host AEK Athens in the UEFA Champions League on Thursday 15 October 2026. The prices see little between them: Shakhtar Donetsk 35%, the draw 28%, AEK Athens 36% once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Shakhtar Donetsk 0 at 1.97, AEK Athens at 1.92. The main goals line is 2.75: over 2.04, under 1.83, which gives over 47%.
Form in numbers
- AEK Athens create more: 1.86 expected goals a match against 0.53 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
- Shots a match: Shakhtar Donetsk 8.0 (2.0 on target), AEK Athens 16.0 (4.0 on target).
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Per match | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| 0.53 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 1.67 |
| 8.0 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 2.0 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 20.0 | Tackles | 18.0 |
| 15.0 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 6.0 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 1 and 3 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.